Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+24.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.378EPA / play+0.118
- 36.0%Success rate40.9%
- -0.442EPA / dropback-0.014
- -0.228EPA / rush+0.259
- 2.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- -7.78CPOE-11.92
- 16.7%Third-down rate56.3%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 0.83Points / drive2.57
- 4.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 17/28 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| Pat Bryant | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 15/27 | 184 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | 23 | 173 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Emmett Johnson | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Emmett Johnson | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 2 | 2 | 19 | 1 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Jake Briningstool | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cyrus Allen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
95.3%
Expected total
36.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+22.31
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+24.53