2026 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

10·31

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 91°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Nothing filed.

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.040EPA / play+0.104
  • 37.9%Success rate46.6%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.093EPA / rush+0.075
  • 6.4%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -2.61CPOE+0.11
  • 31.4%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.28
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC
2022 · W14KC @ DEN34–28KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:003-1Turnover0–0
KCQ1 13:301156Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 8:11863Touchdown7–7
KCQ1 3:4833Punt7–7
DENQ1 2:43729Punt7–7
KCQ2 13:28618Punt7–7
DENQ2 11:0438Punt7–7
KCQ2 9:21618Punt7–7
DENQ2 6:2239Punt7–7
KCQ2 4:411080Touchdown7–14
DENQ2 1:3935Punt7–14
KCQ2 0:5127End of half7–14
KCQ3 15:00469Touchdown7–21
DENQ3 12:43425Punt7–21
KCQ3 9:4710Turnover7–21
DENQ3 9:3442Field goal10–21
KCQ3 7:34658Field goal10–24
DENQ3 3:17614Turnover10–24
KCQ3 0:27432Touchdown10–31
DENQ4 14:3935Punt10–31
KCQ4 13:25941Punt10–31
DENQ4 6:54618Turnover on downs10–31
KCQ4 4:32414Turnover on downs10–31
DENQ4 0:3600End of half10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix17/2813111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins8364.50
RJ Harvey3186.00
Troy Franklin155.00
Bo Nix320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram45431
Pat Bryant46420
RJ Harvey44230
Courtland Sutton25110
Adam Trautman23100
Jaylen Waddle1320
Troy Franklin0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes15/2718421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III231737.51
Emmett Johnson8243.00
Patrick Mahomes7233.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce35710
Emmett Johnson22440
Rashee Rice22191
Kenneth Walker III36181
Xavier Worthy36180
Jake Briningstool1190
Noah Gray1150
Tyquan Thornton0100
Cyrus Allen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.29