2026 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

24·28

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors

Closing spread

DEN -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.113EPA / play-0.018
  • 47.1%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.031
  • +0.065EPA / rush-0.095
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.9%
  • +1.39CPOE-2.74
  • 39.9%Third-down rate29.8%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.84
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
KCQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:41829Field goal0–3
KCQ1 9:43754Touchdown7–3
DENQ1 6:0438Punt7–3
KCQ1 4:29313Punt7–3
DENQ1 2:07844Field goal7–6
KCQ2 14:0830Punt7–6
DENQ2 13:46722Punt7–6
KCQ2 10:586105Touchdown14–6
DENQ2 7:401452Touchdown14–13
KCQ2 1:15548Field goal17–13
DENQ2 0:1900End of half17–13
DENQ3 15:00311Punt17–13
KCQ3 12:31615Punt17–13
DENQ3 9:3538Punt17–13
KCQ3 7:021163Touchdown24–13
DENQ3 1:3830Punt24–13
KCQ3 1:06619Punt24–13
DENQ4 13:13965Touchdown24–21
KCQ4 8:551029Missed field goal24–21
DENQ4 2:31256Touchdown24–28
KCQ4 1:56849Turnover on downs24–28

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes30/4132130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenneth Walker III21693.30
Emmett Johnson11515.00
Patrick Mahomes263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmett Johnson551281
Travis Kelce57670
Rashee Rice78531
Cyrus Allen23200
Noah Gray22151
Kenneth Walker III45150
Xavier Worthy36130
Jake Briningstool1160
Jalen Royals1140

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix20/3222220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonah Coleman11413.71
Marvin Mims Jr.2199.50
J.K. Dobbins7131.90
Bo Nix341.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonah Coleman45630
Courtland Sutton44530
Jaylen Waddle36391
Adam Trautman22300
Lil'Jordan Humphrey11100
Marvin Mims Jr.23100
Nate Adkins2241
Troy Franklin1230
Evan Engram0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.25