Closing spread
KC -10.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.021
- 42.3%Success rate43.8%
- -0.005EPA / dropback+0.082
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.6%
- +3.74CPOE+1.52
- 36.8%Third-down rate44.9%
- 59.0%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
- 1.87Points / drive1.89
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 13/22 | 95 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 30/40 | 306 | 1 | 1 |
| Kadarius Toney | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 9 | 124 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 4 | 72 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 6 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.14