2023 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

8·19

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

KC -10.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.021
  • 42.3%Success rate43.8%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.082
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.111
  • 8.6%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +3.74CPOE+1.52
  • 36.8%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 59.0%Red-zone TD rate51.6%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.89
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC
2022 · W14KC @ DEN34–28KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
DENQ1 15:00934Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ1 9:24842Field goal0–3
DENQ1 5:40218Turnover0–3
KCQ1 4:53442Turnover0–3
DENQ1 2:55619Punt0–3
KCQ2 14:201257Turnover on downs0–3
DENQ2 8:0435Punt0–3
KCQ2 6:28762Touchdown0–10
DENQ2 3:0635Punt0–10
KCQ2 1:4955Punt0–10
DENQ2 0:47413Punt0–10
KCQ2 0:15219Field goal0–13
KCQ3 15:001168Field goal0–16
DENQ3 9:16730Turnover0–16
KCQ3 5:38621Punt0–16
DENQ3 1:27822Punt0–16
KCQ4 12:45634Punt0–16
DENQ4 9:22750Touchdown8–16
KCQ4 6:07841Field goal8–19
DENQ4 1:5521Turnover8–19
KCQ4 1:4200End of half8–19

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson13/229512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams10525.20
Russell Wilson4317.80
Jaleel McLaughlin7304.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton46461
Samaje Perine22160
Jerry Jeudy35140
Jaleel McLaughlin22120
Adam Trautman1240
Greg Dulcich1230
Chris Manhertz0100
Brandon Johnson0200

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes30/4030611
Kadarius Toney0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco16623.90
Patrick Mahomes6315.20
Clyde Edwards-Helaire273.50
Noah Gray111.00
Kadarius Toney2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce991240
Rashee Rice44720
Isiah Pacheco66360
Skyy Moore24220
Jerick McKinnon35200
Noah Gray22140
Clyde Edwards-Helaire1190
Kadarius Toney3691
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100
Justin Watson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.14