2023 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

9·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

KC -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.021EPA / play-0.046
  • 43.8%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.110
  • 7.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • +1.52CPOE+3.74
  • 44.9%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.87
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC
2022 · W14KC @ DEN34–28KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
KCQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:161039Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 7:561171Field goal3–7
DENQ1 1:11511Punt3–7
KCQ2 14:13427Turnover3–7
DENQ2 13:03350Touchdown3–14
KCQ2 11:51410Turnover3–14
DENQ2 10:0148Turnover on downs3–14
KCQ2 8:26444Field goal6–14
DENQ2 5:39510Punt6–14
KCQ2 3:30944Turnover6–14
DENQ2 0:48616Turnover6–14
KCQ2 0:09110Field goal9–14
DENQ3 15:001455Missed field goal9–14
KCQ3 6:34831Punt9–14
DENQ3 2:451342Punt9–14
DENQ4 11:15210Touchdown9–21
KCQ4 10:331149Turnover on downs9–21
DENQ4 7:353-6Punt9–21
KCQ4 6:334-17Turnover9–21
DENQ4 4:4565Field goal9–24
KCQ4 0:3119End of half9–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes24/3824002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isiah Pacheco8405.00
Patrick Mahomes3206.70
Clyde Edwards-Helaire144.00
Mecole Hardman133.00
Jerick McKinnon2-2-1.00
Kadarius Toney1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce69580
Rashee Rice45560
Justin Watson23420
Marquez Valdes-Scantling24270
Noah Gray23250
Mecole Hardman22130
Jerick McKinnon12100
Skyy Moore1380
Kadarius Toney1140
Blake Bell0100
Isiah Pacheco34-30

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson12/1911430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams27853.10
Jaleel McLaughlin4338.30
Russell Wilson8303.80
Samaje Perine155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy26501
Courtland Sutton23291
Samaje Perine23160
Javonte Williams33131
Jaleel McLaughlin2260
Marvin Mims Jr.1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

4.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.27