Closing spread
KC -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play-0.046
- 43.8%Success rate42.3%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.110
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.52CPOE+3.74
- 44.9%Third-down rate36.8%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.89Points / drive1.87
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 24/38 | 240 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Skyy Moore | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 3 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 12/19 | 114 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 27 | 85 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.43
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.27