2025 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

19·22

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

KC -3.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.6est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.036
  • 44.5%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.097
  • -0.060EPA / rush-0.069
  • 7.2%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.09CPOE-1.38
  • 39.4%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.23Points / drive2.10
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC
2022 · W14KC @ DEN34–28KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:001354Field goal0–3
KCQ1 7:36411Punt0–3
DENQ1 6:2135Field goal0–6
KCQ1 4:531039Field goal3–6
DENQ1 0:4933Punt3–6
KCQ2 14:101791Field goal6–6
DENQ2 4:38417Punt6–6
KCQ2 3:0432Punt6–6
DENQ2 1:4639Punt6–6
KCQ2 0:2758Turnover on downs6–6
KCQ3 15:001147Turnover6–6
DENQ3 10:041189Touchdown6–13
KCQ3 4:03675Touchdown13–13
DENQ3 0:49760Field goal13–16
KCQ4 12:50836Touchdown19–16
DENQ4 9:57318Punt19–16
KCQ4 8:11313Punt19–16
DENQ4 6:30519Field goal19–19
KCQ4 4:103-11Punt19–19
DENQ4 2:59969Field goal19–22

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes29/4527611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt13594.51
Patrick Mahomes133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce913911
Tyquan Thornton12610
Marquise Brown44400
Rashee Rice69380
Xavier Worthy35250
Noah Gray2390
Brashard Smith2380
Kareem Hunt1230
Robert Tonyan1110
Elijah Mitchell0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix24/3729500
RJ Harvey0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
RJ Harvey11302.70
Jaleel McLaughlin6193.21
Bo Nix382.70
Marvin Mims Jr.122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Troy Franklin48840
Pat Bryant56820
Courtland Sutton48590
Evan Engram45330
RJ Harvey33200
Adam Trautman1180
Tyler Badie1100
Bo Nix0100
Jaleel McLaughlin11-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

6.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.1%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+2.62