Closing spread
KC -3.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.036
- 44.5%Success rate43.7%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.060EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.09CPOE-1.38
- 39.4%Third-down rate42.4%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.23Points / drive2.10
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 29/45 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 9 | 13 | 91 | 1 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 2 | 61 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice | 6 | 9 | 38 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Brashard Smith | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 11 | 30 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Franklin | 4 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Pat Bryant | 5 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
6.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+2.62