Closing spread
DEN -10.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.011
- 47.7%Success rate42.8%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.058EPA / rush-0.075
- 5.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- +2.51CPOE+0.58
- 48.6%Third-down rate40.4%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 2.36Points / drive2.16
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 10/17 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Steele | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Oladokun | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikko Remigio | 2 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Carson Steele | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 26/29 | 321 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 16 | 39 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 7 | 98 | 1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 5 | 5 | 51 | 2 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 4 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.56%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.52
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.02