2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Carson Wentz

0·38

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 28°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -10.5

Total

40.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.071EPA / play+0.011
  • 47.7%Success rate42.8%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.058EPA / rush-0.075
  • 5.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +2.51CPOE+0.58
  • 48.6%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.16
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–24 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC
2022 · W17DEN @ KC24–27KC
2022 · W14KC @ DEN34–28KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–DEN
DENQ1 15:00670Touchdown0–7
KCQ1 11:5537Punt0–7
DENQ1 10:281085Touchdown0–14
KCQ1 4:5346Punt0–14
DENQ1 2:511999Touchdown0–21
KCQ2 6:461042Missed field goal0–21
DENQ2 1:04459Field goal0–24
KCQ2 0:0300End of half0–24
KCQ3 15:00410Punt0–24
DENQ3 12:4758Punt0–24
KCQ3 10:0135Punt0–24
DENQ3 9:041179Touchdown0–31
KCQ3 2:49521Turnover on downs0–31
DENQ3 0:331051Touchdown0–38
KCQ4 9:4034Punt0–38
DENQ4 7:15829Punt0–38
KCQ4 1:0623End of half0–38

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz10/179800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carson Steele8253.10
Chris Oladokun155.00
Samaje Perine111.00
Noah Gray1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nikko Remigio26480
Peyton Hendershot22250
Samaje Perine11130
Justin Watson1350
JuJu Smith-Schuster1240
Carson Steele2220
Noah Gray1110

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix26/2932140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bo Nix7476.70
Jaleel McLaughlin16392.40
Audric Estimé12342.81
Javonte Williams5285.60
Jarrett Stidham273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton57981
Marvin Mims Jr.55512
Javonte Williams34500
Devaughn Vele44501
Lil'Jordan Humphrey22260
Nate Adkins33250
Troy Franklin22120
Jaleel McLaughlin2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

1.56%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.52
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.02