Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play-0.057
- 40.8%Success rate38.8%
- +0.060EPA / dropback+0.024
- -0.154EPA / rush-0.222
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- 36.6%Third-down rate35.5%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.48Points / drive1.19
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.019EPA / play allowed-0.055
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 12:49 | 4 | -14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 11:02 | 8 | 35 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 6:47 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| GB | Q1 4:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 3:10 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 14:53 | 4 | 20 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| DET | Q2 13:23 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 13:16 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 3–7 |
| DET | Q2 10:33 | 2 | 74 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| GB | Q2 9:49 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–14 |
| DET | Q2 7:59 | 6 | 18 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| GB | Q2 5:18 | 12 | 93 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| DET | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–14 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 6–14 |
| GB | Q3 12:03 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| DET | Q3 10:30 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 6–14 |
| GB | Q3 9:08 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 6–14 |
| DET | Q3 7:34 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 6–14 |
| GB | Q3 5:33 | 9 | 61 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| DET | Q3 1:21 | 4 | 7 | Safety | 8–14 |
| GB | Q4 14:57 | 5 | 52 | Touchdown | 15–14 |
| DET | Q4 12:25 | 3 | 8 | Touchdown | 15–20 |
| GB | Q4 10:57 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 15–20 |
| DET | Q4 7:57 | 9 | 78 | Field goal | 15–23 |
| GB | Q4 2:46 | 9 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 15–23 |
| DET | Q4 1:02 | 4 | 4 | End of half | 15–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 20/41 | 288 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 29 | 153 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 6 | 17 | 85 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Mark Chmura | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 9/16 | 219 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Rivers | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Greg Hill | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 4 | 6 | 118 | 1 |
| David Sloan | 1 | 1 | 74 | 1 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ron Rivers | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.88
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.50