Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.7est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.075
- 45.9%Success rate45.1%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.054
- 11.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.34CPOE+1.07
- 42.4%Third-down rate47.4%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.29Points / drive2.16
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 19/28 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 32 | 121 | 3.8 | 3 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 40 | 40.0 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 5 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 23/36 | 246 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 9 | 13 | 95 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 4 | 25 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.74