2023 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

34·20

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.7est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • +0.058EPA / play+0.075
  • 45.9%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.014EPA / rush-0.054
  • 11.2%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +1.34CPOE+1.07
  • 42.4%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.29Points / drive2.16
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET
2022 · W9GB @ DET9–15DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
DETQ1 15:003-2Turnover0–0
GBQ1 13:3430Field goal0–3
DETQ1 11:59775Touchdown7–3
GBQ1 8:163-6Punt7–3
DETQ1 7:10855Touchdown14–3
GBQ1 2:5437Punt14–3
DETQ1 1:20671Field goal17–3
GBQ2 14:0710Turnover17–3
DETQ2 13:5127Touchdown24–3
GBQ2 13:1933Punt24–3
DETQ2 11:38521Punt24–3
GBQ2 9:07511Punt24–3
DETQ2 5:341157Field goal27–3
GBQ2 0:3458End of half27–3
GBQ3 15:001365Touchdown27–11
DETQ3 8:1731Punt27–11
GBQ3 6:1634Punt27–11
DETQ3 4:53616Punt27–11
GBQ3 0:54566Touchdown27–17
DETQ4 14:521469Touchdown34–17
GBQ4 6:00869Turnover34–17
DETQ4 4:0544Punt34–17
GBQ4 3:3233Field goal34–20
DETQ4 2:52528End of half34–20

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff19/2821011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery321213.83
Kalif Raymond14040.00
Jahmyr Gibbs8405.00
Jared Goff2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Reynolds36690
Amon-Ra St. Brown57561
Sam LaPorta45560
David Montgomery22200
Jahmyr Gibbs45110
Marvin Jones0100
Kalif Raymond11-20

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love23/3624612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones5183.60
AJ Dillon5112.20
Jordan Love2-2-1.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs913950
Jayden Reed35550
Samori Toure11350
Josiah Deguara44340
Christian Watson24251
Tucker Kraft2250
Luke Musgrave1110
AJ Dillon0100
Dontayvion Wicks0100
Aaron Jones12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.74