2025 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

31·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.122EPA / play+0.071
  • 48.0%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.076EPA / rush-0.071
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +5.62CPOE+1.64
  • 48.8%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.54
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET
2022 · W9GB @ DET9–15DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
GBQ1 15:001156Field goal3–0
DETQ1 9:1232Punt3–0
GBQ1 8:1935Punt3–0
DETQ1 6:3268Punt3–0
GBQ1 3:261072Touchdown10–0
DETQ2 14:191170Touchdown10–7
GBQ2 7:541266Touchdown17–7
DETQ2 2:12760Touchdown17–14
GBQ2 0:2510End of half17–14
DETQ3 15:00717Turnover on downs17–14
GBQ3 11:08251Touchdown24–14
DETQ3 10:31571Touchdown24–21
GBQ3 7:251070Touchdown31–21
DETQ3 1:441162Turnover on downs31–21
GBQ4 10:5036Punt31–21
DETQ4 9:021362Field goal31–24
GBQ4 2:59736End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love18/3023440

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs17834.90
Bo Melton2157.50
Emanuel Wilson4143.50
Dontayvion Wicks166.00
Jordan Love540.80
Christian Watson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dontayvion Wicks67942
Christian Watson410801
Luke Musgrave11230
Romeo Doubs44201
Chris Brooks2290
Josh Jacobs1180
Bo Melton0100
John FitzPatrick0100
Malik Heath0100
Josh Whyle0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff20/2625620
David Montgomery0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs20683.40
David Montgomery8324.01
Jared Goff12424.00
Jameson Williams1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams7101441
Tom Kennedy44360
Isaac TeSlaa22351
Jahmyr Gibbs34180
David Montgomery22160
Anthony Firkser1140
Ross Dwelley1330
Amon-Ra St. Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.66