Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play+0.071
- 48.0%Success rate45.0%
- +0.274EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.076EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +5.62CPOE+1.64
- 48.8%Third-down rate39.2%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 2.39Points / drive2.54
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 18/30 | 234 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks | 6 | 7 | 94 | 2 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 10 | 80 | 1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 4 | 20 | 1 |
| Chris Brooks | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/26 | 256 | 2 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 7 | 10 | 144 | 1 |
| Tom Kennedy | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.66