2024 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

31·34

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -3

Total

53

Model margin

+1.6est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.081EPA / play+0.156
  • 44.8%Success rate49.6%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.267
  • -0.030EPA / rush+0.021
  • 11.7%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +1.37CPOE+5.81
  • 37.6%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 2.38Points / drive3.02
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET
2022 · W9GB @ DET9–15DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
DETQ1 15:001376Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 9:4165Punt0–7
DETQ1 6:3832Punt0–7
GBQ1 4:4135Punt0–7
DETQ1 3:50612Punt0–7
GBQ1 0:35227Turnover0–7
DETQ2 14:50514Field goal0–10
GBQ2 13:011468Touchdown7–10
DETQ2 5:351270Touchdown7–17
GBQ2 0:1100End of half7–17
GBQ3 15:00570Touchdown14–17
DETQ3 13:1536Turnover14–17
GBQ3 12:21316Touchdown21–17
DETQ3 11:151370Touchdown21–24
GBQ3 5:0237Punt21–24
DETQ3 3:2248Turnover on downs21–24
GBQ3 1:26430Touchdown28–24
DETQ4 14:201070Touchdown28–31
GBQ4 8:39971Field goal31–31
DETQ4 3:381163Field goal31–34

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love12/2020610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs18663.73
Jordan Love4235.80
Emanuel Wilson177.00
Chris Brooks133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson471140
Dontayvion Wicks45490
Tucker Kraft35411
Ben Sims1120
Jayden Reed0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff32/4128331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery14513.61
Jahmyr Gibbs15432.90
Amon-Ra St. Brown11010.00
Jared Goff471.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jameson Williams58800
Sam LaPorta57540
Tim Patrick67432
Amon-Ra St. Brown56430
David Montgomery55330
Jahmyr Gibbs66301
Brock Wright0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.5%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.64