Closing spread
DET -3
Total
53
Model margin
+1.6est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play+0.156
- 44.8%Success rate49.6%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.267
- -0.030EPA / rush+0.021
- 11.7%Explosive rate11.5%
- +1.37CPOE+5.81
- 37.6%Third-down rate48.1%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 2.38Points / drive3.02
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 12/20 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Jordan Love | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 4 | 7 | 114 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 5 | 41 | 1 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 32/41 | 283 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 6 | 7 | 43 | 2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 6 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.5%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.64