Closing spread
DET -8.5
Total
47
Model margin
+0.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play+0.058
- 45.1%Success rate45.9%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.014
- 9.2%Explosive rate11.2%
- +1.07CPOE+1.34
- 47.4%Third-down rate42.4%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 2.16Points / drive2.29
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 22/32 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 14 | 43 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 5 | 7 | 94 | 1 |
| Malik Heath | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 8 | 34 | 1 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 29/44 | 332 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 15 | 71 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 9 | 11 | 95 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 5 | 5 | 90 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 8 | 47 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.67