2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

29·22

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -8.5

Total

47

Model margin

+0.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.075EPA / play+0.058
  • 45.1%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.014
  • 9.2%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +1.07CPOE+1.34
  • 47.4%Third-down rate42.4%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 2.16Points / drive2.29
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET
2022 · W9GB @ DET9–15DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
GBQ1 15:00575Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 12:16857Touchdown7–6
GBQ1 8:301075Touchdown14–6
DETQ1 3:0833Opp touchdown20–6
DETQ1 2:1237Turnover20–6
GBQ1 1:2049Turnover on downs20–6
DETQ2 14:55834Punt20–6
GBQ2 10:38857Field goal23–6
DETQ2 5:561045Turnover on downs23–6
GBQ2 1:58520Punt23–6
DETQ2 0:3540Punt23–6
GBQ2 0:05111Missed field goal23–6
DETQ3 15:00782Touchdown23–14
GBQ3 11:46633Punt23–14
DETQ3 7:41620Turnover on downs23–14
GBQ3 5:27433Touchdown29–14
DETQ3 3:301136Turnover29–14
GBQ4 13:32518Punt29–14
DETQ4 11:521079Turnover on downs29–14
GBQ4 6:46646Punt29–14
DETQ4 2:4613101Touchdown29–22
GBQ4 0:4100End of half29–22

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love22/3226830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
AJ Dillon14433.10
Jordan Love33913.00
Jayden Reed2168.00
Patrick Taylor3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson57941
Malik Heath44460
AJ Dillon33380
Romeo Doubs34370
Jayden Reed48341
Tucker Kraft22151
Patrick Taylor1140
Ben Sims0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff29/4433220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery15714.71
Jahmyr Gibbs11544.90
Jared Goff393.00
Kalif Raymond166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown911950
Kalif Raymond55900
Jameson Williams23510
Sam LaPorta58471
Jahmyr Gibbs48190
Josh Reynolds24151
Brock Wright1190
David Montgomery0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.52.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

46.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.04
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.67