Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
49
Model margin
+1.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.073EPA / play+0.017
- 45.7%Success rate46.2%
- +0.173EPA / dropback+0.035
- -0.070EPA / rush-0.009
- 9.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- -1.27CPOE+0.52
- 41.5%Third-down rate39.3%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 2.36Points / drive1.91
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 23/34 | 224 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Williams | 16 | 72 | 4.5 | 2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 4 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 7 | 7 | 61 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| James Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Shane Zylstra | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/27 | 205 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 5 | 6 | 104 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.26