2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

20·16

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 21°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

GB -5.5

Total

49

Model margin

+1.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • +0.073EPA / play+0.017
  • 45.7%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback+0.035
  • -0.070EPA / rush-0.009
  • 9.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -1.27CPOE+0.52
  • 41.5%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 64.6%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.91
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W9GB @ DET9–15DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:00729Field goal0–3
DETQ1 11:2134Punt0–3
GBQ1 10:2748Turnover on downs0–3
DETQ1 8:32412Field goal3–3
GBQ1 7:00736Field goal3–6
DETQ1 1:5437Punt3–6
GBQ1 0:17625Field goal3–9
DETQ2 12:561257Missed field goal3–9
GBQ2 6:13740Turnover3–9
DETQ2 1:16955Field goal6–9
DETQ3 15:0038Punt6–9
GBQ3 13:13741Missed field goal6–9
DETQ3 9:32357Touchdown13–9
GBQ3 8:05983Touchdown13–16
DETQ3 3:1735Punt13–16
GBQ3 2:18717Punt13–16
DETQ4 13:581370Touchdown20–16
GBQ4 5:55612Turnover20–16
DETQ4 3:27849End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff23/3422400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Williams16724.52
D'Andre Swift6254.20
Jared Goff252.50
Justin Jackson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kalif Raymond46660
D'Andre Swift77610
Amon-Ra St. Brown69490
Josh Reynolds12160
DJ Chark34140
Justin Jackson11110
James Mitchell1170
Shane Zylstra0100
Brock Wright0100
Jameson Williams0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers17/2720511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones12484.00
AJ Dillon9333.70
Christian Watson2126.00
Aaron Rodgers3103.30
Allen Lazard200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson561040
Allen Lazard46411
Robert Tonyan33290
Aaron Jones34200
Randall Cobb22110
AJ Dillon0300
Romeo Doubs0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.26