Closing spread
DET -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play+0.081
- 49.6%Success rate44.8%
- +0.267EPA / dropback+0.182
- +0.021EPA / rush-0.030
- 11.5%Explosive rate11.7%
- +5.81CPOE+1.37
- 48.1%Third-down rate37.6%
- 74.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 3.02Points / drive2.38
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 18/22 | 145 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 65 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 7 | 7 | 56 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 23/39 | 273 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 95 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 1 |
| Chris Brooks | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 5 | 6 | 113 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.06
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77