2024 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

24·14

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

DET -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • +0.156EPA / play+0.081
  • 49.6%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.267EPA / dropback+0.182
  • +0.021EPA / rush-0.030
  • 11.5%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +5.81CPOE+1.37
  • 48.1%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 74.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 3.02Points / drive2.38
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET
2022 · W9GB @ DET9–15DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:001368Field goal0–3
DETQ1 7:061368Touchdown7–3
GBQ2 14:56444Punt7–3
DETQ2 12:0949Punt7–3
GBQ2 9:191039Missed field goal7–3
DETQ2 5:23955Field goal10–3
GBQ2 0:5828Opp touchdown17–3
GBQ2 0:32359End of half17–3
DETQ3 15:001171Touchdown24–3
GBQ3 9:3237Punt24–3
DETQ3 8:0439Punt24–3
GBQ3 5:57961Field goal24–6
DETQ3 0:4830Punt24–6
GBQ4 14:071180Turnover on downs24–6
DETQ4 10:03612Punt24–6
GBQ4 6:22945Touchdown24–14
DETQ4 3:49539End of half24–14

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff18/2214510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery17734.30
Jahmyr Gibbs11655.91
Jared Goff3-2-0.70
Kalif Raymond1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown77561
Sam LaPorta23280
David Montgomery33230
Kalif Raymond11120
Tim Patrick22120
Jahmyr Gibbs12110
Allen Robinson1120
Brock Wright1110

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love23/3927301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs13957.30
Emanuel Wilson4287.01
Chris Brooks2136.50
Tucker Kraft122.00
Jordan Love300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Reed561130
Christian Watson37370
Tucker Kraft46340
Romeo Doubs45280
Chris Brooks34280
Bo Melton12190
Josh Jacobs23130
Emanuel Wilson1110
Dontayvion Wicks0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.06
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.77