Closing spread
GB -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.071EPA / play+0.122
- 45.0%Success rate48.0%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.274
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.076
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.64CPOE+5.62
- 39.2%Third-down rate48.8%
- 66.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.54Points / drive2.39
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 31/39 | 225 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 6 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 10 | 10 | 31 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 16/22 | 188 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 66 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 2 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 5 | 45 | 1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 |
| Matthew Golden | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75