2026 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

17·20

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome

Closing spread

DET -3.5

Total

55.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapLions
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.119
  • 40.0%Success rate49.6%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.264
  • -0.266EPA / rush-0.083
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -1.28CPOE+1.28
  • 36.3%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.96Points / drive2.76
  • 1.9%Turnover rate0.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. DET are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET
2022 · W9GB @ DET9–15DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–DET
GBQ1 15:00962Missed field goal0–0
DETQ1 10:23680Touchdown0–7
GBQ1 7:001274Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 0:58560Field goal7–10
GBQ2 12:363-4Punt7–10
DETQ2 11:08514Punt7–10
GBQ2 9:171373Turnover on downs7–10
DETQ2 4:151285Turnover7–10
GBQ2 0:1911End of half7–10
DETQ3 15:0027Turnover7–10
GBQ3 14:12542Touchdown14–10
DETQ3 12:141068Touchdown14–17
GBQ3 6:3332Punt14–17
DETQ3 5:251237Turnover on downs14–17
GBQ3 1:04513Turnover14–17
DETQ4 14:4231Punt14–17
GBQ4 13:441356Field goal17–17
DETQ4 7:1047Turnover on downs17–17
GBQ4 4:5035Missed field goal17–17
DETQ4 3:21857Field goal17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love27/4527421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs11363.30
MarShawn Lloyd6203.30
Savion Williams242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson58570
Josh Jacobs57551
Tucker Kraft46481
Savion Williams33470
Matthew Golden612390
MarShawn Lloyd22150
Jonnu Smith1190
Bo Melton1240
Mark Redman0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff22/3230320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs291164.00
Sione Vaki155.00
Jared Goff2-1-0.50
Amon-Ra St. Brown1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown9111530
Jameson Williams59912
Jahmyr Gibbs56270
Sam LaPorta12180
Isaac TeSlaa12100
Tyler Conklin1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.00