Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+7.3est.
DET perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Packersedge mapLions
- -0.181EPA / play-0.027
- 38.2%Success rate45.5%
- -0.059EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.438EPA / rush-0.072
- 13.2%Explosive rate10.4%
- -9.65CPOE-2.91
- 25.0%Third-down rate38.5%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.91Points / drive2.20
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.54
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+7.32