1999 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

28·31

Patriots

New England

QB Drew Bledsoe

Foxboro Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NE -4.5

Total

45

Model margin

+1.2est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.072EPA / play-0.107
  • 41.4%Success rate37.4%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.062
  • -0.106EPA / rush-0.179
  • 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
  • 39.4%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 52.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.19
  • 2.8%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
INDQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:19735Punt0–0
INDQ1 7:48563Touchdown7–0
NEQ1 5:5136Punt7–0
INDQ1 4:39966Touchdown14–0
NEQ1 0:3728Turnover14–0
INDQ2 14:51539Touchdown21–0
NEQ2 12:39618Punt21–0
INDQ2 9:3920Turnover21–0
NEQ2 8:57327Touchdown21–7
INDQ2 7:441384Touchdown28–7
NEQ2 0:48859End of half28–7
NEQ3 15:003-1Punt28–7
INDQ3 14:05521Punt28–7
NEQ3 11:15417Punt28–7
INDQ3 9:4337Punt28–7
NEQ3 8:121067Touchdown28–14
INDQ3 4:35632Punt28–14
NEQ3 0:5940Punt28–14
INDQ4 14:4823Turnover28–14
NEQ4 14:00858Touchdown28–21
INDQ4 9:4336Punt28–21
NEQ4 8:021078Touchdown28–28
INDQ4 3:03410Turnover28–28
NEQ4 2:32729Field goal28–31
INDQ4 0:3550Turnover28–31
NEQ4 0:0500End of half28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning18/3022332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Edgerrin James321183.71
Peyton Manning133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison7111053
E.G. Green59610
Marcus Pollard45440
Edgerrin James1290
Scott Greene1140
Ken Dilger0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Bledsoe27/4529940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Terry Allen15744.90
Lamont Warren4184.50
Kevin Faulk591.80
Drew Bledsoe372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Glenn7101220
Troy Brown24370
Ben Coates49342
Shawn Jefferson35341
Tony Carter46240
Tony Simmons22160
Lamont Warren12160
Terry Allen2381
Rod Rutledge1270
Kevin Faulk1210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.19