Closing spread
NE -4.5
Total
45
Model margin
+1.2est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.107
- 41.4%Success rate37.4%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.179
- 9.5%Explosive rate7.8%
- 39.4%Third-down rate35.1%
- 52.1%Red-zone TD rate45.4%
- 1.88Points / drive1.19
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.036EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 18/30 | 223 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 32 | 118 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison | 7 | 11 | 105 | 3 |
| E.G. Green | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Marcus Pollard | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Scott Greene | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Ken Dilger | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 27/45 | 299 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Allen | 15 | 74 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Glenn | 7 | 10 | 122 | 0 |
| Troy Brown | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Ben Coates | 4 | 9 | 34 | 2 |
| Shawn Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 34 | 1 |
| Tony Carter | 4 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Tony Simmons | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Lamont Warren | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Terry Allen | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Rod Rutledge | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevin Faulk | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.19