2024 · Week 13

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Joe Flacco

25·24

Patriots

New England

QB Drake Maye

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 36°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

IND -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-3.5est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.045EPA / play-0.081
  • 40.6%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.025EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.071EPA / rush-0.187
  • 10.3%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -5.38CPOE+1.54
  • 37.8%Third-down rate35.0%
  • 53.0%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.51
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE
2013 · playoffsIND @ NE22–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
NEQ1 15:001060Field goal0–3
INDQ1 9:12871Touchdown7–3
NEQ1 5:02977Field goal7–6
INDQ1 0:432-1Turnover7–6
NEQ2 15:0036Field goal7–9
INDQ2 12:49941Touchdown14–9
NEQ2 8:36870Touchdown14–16
INDQ2 4:023-2Punt14–16
NEQ2 2:571266Missed field goal14–16
INDQ2 0:1800End of half14–16
INDQ3 15:001268Field goal17–16
NEQ3 7:261367Turnover17–16
INDQ3 0:5348Punt17–16
NEQ4 14:141059Touchdown17–24
INDQ4 8:4323Turnover17–24
NEQ4 7:593-3Punt17–24
INDQ4 5:342066Touchdown25–24
NEQ4 0:12320Missed field goal25–24

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Anthony Richardson12/2410922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor25963.80
Anthony Richardson9485.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman57420
Andrew Ogletree12220
Alec Pierce26161
Mo Alie-Cox22150
Jonathan Taylor1171
Will Mallory1170
Kylen Granson0300
Adonai Mitchell0200

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drake Maye24/3023811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson18734.10
Antonio Gibson7628.91
Drake Maye55911.80
Kendrick Bourne166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry79750
Austin Hooper44421
Kayshon Boutte36410
Kendrick Bourne33390
Rhamondre Stevenson33210
DeMario Douglas44200
Ja'Lynn Polk0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.8%3.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.36
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.81
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.46