Closing spread
IND -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-3.5est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.045EPA / play-0.081
- 40.6%Success rate42.5%
- -0.025EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.187
- 10.3%Explosive rate7.0%
- -5.38CPOE+1.54
- 37.8%Third-down rate35.0%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.87Points / drive1.51
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Richardson | 12/24 | 109 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 25 | 96 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Richardson | 9 | 48 | 5.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 2 | 6 | 16 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 24/30 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 62 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Drake Maye | 5 | 59 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 7 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 4 | 42 | 1 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| DeMario Douglas | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.36
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.81
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.46