2015 · Week 6

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

34·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NE -8

Total

53.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapColts
  • +0.089EPA / play-0.083
  • 44.0%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback-0.023
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.206
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.0%
  • -0.32CPOE-4.10
  • 41.0%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 68.9%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.47
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE
2013 · playoffsIND @ NE22–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–IND
INDQ1 15:001394Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 7:161175Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 2:50313Punt7–7
NEQ1 1:41969Field goal10–7
INDQ2 13:48527Punt10–7
NEQ2 11:4020Opp touchdown10–14
NEQ2 11:30450Touchdown17–14
INDQ2 9:331372Touchdown17–21
NEQ2 2:381168Field goal20–21
INDQ2 0:0200End of half20–21
NEQ3 15:00780Touchdown27–21
INDQ3 10:5639Punt27–21
NEQ3 10:20418Punt27–21
INDQ3 8:47719Punt27–21
NEQ3 5:0237Punt27–21
INDQ3 3:56617Turnover on downs27–21
NEQ3 1:12635Touchdown34–21
INDQ4 12:4841Punt34–21
NEQ4 11:2439Punt34–21
INDQ4 9:26717Punt34–21
NEQ4 6:393-4Punt34–21
INDQ4 5:05956Turnover on downs34–21
NEQ4 3:31312Punt34–21
INDQ4 3:03885Touchdown34–27
NEQ4 1:1900End of half34–27

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3731231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount16935.81
Dion Lewis4215.30
Julian Edelman122.00
Tom Brady400.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola791050
Julian Edelman610501
Rob Gronkowski35501
Scott Chandler23390
Keshawn Martin12390
Dion Lewis36180
LeGarrette Blount11111
James White0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck30/5031230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13786.00
Andrew Luck4358.80
Ahmad Bradshaw482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton69741
Donte Moncrief611691
Andre Johnson36350
Griff Whalen23301
Phillip Dorsett24300
Dwayne Allen33230
Coby Fleener36200
Frank Gore23160
Ahmad Bradshaw1180
Jack Doyle2270

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -82.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.5%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.28