Closing spread
NE -8
Total
53.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play-0.083
- 44.0%Success rate40.1%
- +0.174EPA / dropback-0.023
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.206
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.0%
- -0.32CPOE-4.10
- 41.0%Third-down rate40.5%
- 68.9%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.25Points / drive1.47
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/37 | 312 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 16 | 93 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 7 | 9 | 105 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 6 | 10 | 50 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Scott Chandler | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| James White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 30/50 | 312 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 6 | 9 | 74 | 1 |
| Donte Moncrief | 6 | 11 | 69 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Griff Whalen | 2 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.28