2023 · Week 10

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Gardner Minshew

10·6

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Deutsche Bank Park · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

42

Model margin

+0.6est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.189
  • 41.5%Success rate38.9%
  • +0.030EPA / dropback-0.226
  • -0.108EPA / rush-0.128
  • 8.6%Explosive rate5.5%
  • -3.92CPOE-3.39
  • 34.4%Third-down rate30.8%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.00
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE
2013 · playoffsIND @ NE22–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
NEQ1 15:001261Field goal0–3
INDQ1 8:111475Touchdown7–3
NEQ1 0:58612Punt7–3
INDQ2 12:3330Punt7–3
NEQ2 12:0337Punt7–3
INDQ2 10:1039Punt7–3
NEQ2 8:2031Punt7–3
INDQ2 6:28742Punt7–3
NEQ2 3:34527Punt7–3
INDQ2 1:10736Missed field goal7–3
NEQ2 0:02130End of half7–3
INDQ3 15:00527Turnover7–3
NEQ3 12:35733Missed field goal7–3
INDQ3 8:38511Punt7–3
NEQ3 5:481493Field goal7–6
INDQ4 12:44620Field goal10–6
NEQ4 8:541050Turnover10–6
INDQ4 4:16645Punt10–6
NEQ4 1:52826Turnover10–6
INDQ4 0:3100End of half10–6

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew18/2819401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor23693.01
Zack Moss122.00
Gardner Minshew2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman812840
Josh Downs23400
Isaiah McKenzie44310
Alec Pierce11210
Will Mallory1270
Jonathan Taylor1160
Kylen Granson1250
Mo Alie-Cox0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones15/2017001
Bailey Zappe3/72501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson20884.40
Ezekiel Elliott13544.20
Mac Jones3258.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeMario Douglas69840
Ezekiel Elliott22340
Mike Gesicki23220
Hunter Henry35210
Rhamondre Stevenson35140
Kayshon Boutte11110
JuJu Smith-Schuster1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.60