Closing spread
IND -1
Total
42
Model margin
+0.6est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.189
- 41.5%Success rate38.9%
- +0.030EPA / dropback-0.226
- -0.108EPA / rush-0.128
- 8.6%Explosive rate5.5%
- -3.92CPOE-3.39
- 34.4%Third-down rate30.8%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate52.2%
- 1.78Points / drive1.00
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 18/28 | 194 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 23 | 69 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 8 | 12 | 84 | 0 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Will Mallory | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 15/20 | 170 | 0 | 1 |
| Bailey Zappe | 3/7 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMario Douglas | 6 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60