Closing spread
NE -5
Total
40
Model margin
+5.7est.
NE perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play-0.047
- 40.3%Success rate41.1%
- -0.139EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.082
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- -1.42CPOE+0.93
- 33.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 45.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.33Points / drive1.54
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Ehlinger | 15/29 | 103 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Ehlinger | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 4 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 5 | 15 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 20/30 | 147 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 10 | 9 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.1%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.76
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.69