2022 · Week 9

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Sam Ehlinger

3·26

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 78°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -5

Total

40

Model margin

+5.7est.

NE perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.154EPA / play-0.047
  • 40.3%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.082
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -1.42CPOE+0.93
  • 33.3%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 45.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.54
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE
2013 · playoffsIND @ NE22–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
NEQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
INDQ1 14:1164Punt0–0
NEQ1 11:243-3Punt0–0
INDQ1 9:343-6Punt0–0
NEQ1 7:32616Punt0–0
INDQ1 3:2130Punt0–0
NEQ1 1:16542Field goal0–3
INDQ2 13:3033Punt0–3
NEQ2 11:50729Field goal0–6
INDQ2 8:50411Punt0–6
NEQ2 6:5822Touchdown0–13
INDQ2 6:1258Punt0–13
NEQ2 3:1859Punt0–13
INDQ2 1:34844Missed field goal0–13
NEQ2 0:1800End of half0–13
INDQ3 15:0031Punt0–13
NEQ3 13:2425Turnover0–13
INDQ3 12:40718Field goal3–13
NEQ3 8:00842Field goal3–16
INDQ3 4:1737Punt3–16
NEQ3 2:4333Punt3–16
INDQ3 1:4549Turnover on downs3–16
NEQ4 14:55940Field goal3–19
INDQ4 10:103-5Punt3–19
NEQ4 8:30617Punt3–19
INDQ4 5:093-5Opp touchdown3–26
INDQ4 3:59627Turnover on downs3–26
NEQ4 2:4035Punt3–26
INDQ4 0:2915End of half3–26

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Ehlinger15/2910301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sam Ehlinger5397.80
Deon Jackson11232.10
Jordan Wilkins3134.30
Phillip Lindsay122.00
Parris Campbell111.00
Kylen Granson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alec Pierce12230
Michael Pittman36220
Jordan Wilkins45150
Parris Campbell25150
Mo Alie-Cox22130
Deon Jackson23130
Jelani Woods1320
Phillip Lindsay0100
Kylen Granson0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones20/3014710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson15604.00
J.J. Taylor1090.90
Jakobi Meyers122.00
Kendrick Bourne111.00
Mac Jones1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry44500
Jakobi Meyers56420
Jonnu Smith33210
Kendrick Bourne34110
Rhamondre Stevenson37101
J.J. Taylor1180
Tyquan Thornton1450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.1%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.76
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.69