Closing spread
IND -3
Total
58
Model margin
+2.0est.
IND perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.090EPA / play+0.029
- 46.4%Success rate45.9%
- +0.173EPA / dropback+0.147
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.221
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.7%
- +1.32CPOE+1.10
- 45.6%Third-down rate42.2%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.38Points / drive2.01
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 19/30 | 257 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Gray | 37 | 201 | 5.4 | 4 |
| Julian Edelman | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | 4 | 5 | 71 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 4 | 4 | 59 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Tyms | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 23/39 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 4 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 7 | 7 | 144 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 5 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Trent Richardson | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 2 | 5 | 15 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.97