2014 · Week 11

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

42·20

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -3

Total

58

Model margin

+2.0est.

IND perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapColts
  • +0.090EPA / play+0.029
  • 46.4%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.173EPA / dropback+0.147
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.221
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.7%
  • +1.32CPOE+1.10
  • 45.6%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.38Points / drive2.01
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2013 · playoffsIND @ NE22–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–IND
INDQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:511189Touchdown7–0
INDQ1 8:37772Field goal7–3
NEQ1 4:19429Turnover7–3
INDQ1 2:58734Punt7–3
NEQ2 14:40637Punt7–3
INDQ2 11:49643Turnover7–3
NEQ2 8:261263Touchdown14–3
INDQ2 3:5038Punt14–3
NEQ2 2:1539Turnover14–3
INDQ2 1:16323Touchdown14–10
NEQ2 0:5500End of half14–10
NEQ3 15:00880Touchdown21–10
INDQ3 11:10525Field goal21–13
NEQ3 8:311080Touchdown28–13
INDQ3 3:301180Touchdown28–20
NEQ4 13:321163Touchdown35–20
INDQ4 8:4340Turnover on downs35–20
NEQ4 8:14332Touchdown42–20
INDQ4 6:46830Turnover on downs42–20
NEQ4 4:17525End of half42–20

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady19/3025722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonas Gray372015.44
Julian Edelman23115.50
Shane Vereen11818.00
Tom Brady2-2-1.00
Jimmy Garoppolo2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rob Gronkowski45711
Brandon LaFell34620
Shane Vereen44590
Julian Edelman58500
Danny Amendola22130
Timothy Wright1221
Michael Hoomanawanui0100
Brian Tyms0200

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck23/3930321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andrew Luck3155.00
Ahmad Bradshaw740.60
Trent Richardson600.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener771440
Reggie Wayne59910
T.Y. Hilton37240
Trent Richardson11210
Hakeem Nicks25151
Ahmad Bradshaw4570
Jack Doyle0100
Donte Moncrief0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.97