Closing spread
NE -10.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.059EPA / play+0.090
- 48.0%Success rate47.3%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.097EPA / rush-0.031
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.63CPOE+1.03
- 50.5%Third-down rate41.8%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 2.25Points / drive2.32
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 38/59 | 365 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyheim Hines | 15 | 45 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 9 | 15 | 105 | 2 |
| Chester Rogers | 8 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 7 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Erik Swoope | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Marcus Johnson | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 34/44 | 341 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 18 | 98 | 5.4 | 1 |
| James White | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 10 | 14 | 77 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 6 | 7 | 75 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 7 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 4 | 50 | 1 |
| Chris Hogan | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.87