2018 · Week 5

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

24·38

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 66°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NE -10.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.059EPA / play+0.090
  • 48.0%Success rate47.3%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.181
  • -0.097EPA / rush-0.031
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.63CPOE+1.03
  • 50.5%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.32
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE
2013 · playoffsIND @ NE22–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
NEQ1 15:001280Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 8:583-6Punt0–7
NEQ1 7:1835Punt0–7
INDQ1 6:101374Missed field goal0–7
NEQ1 0:58857Touchdown0–14
INDQ2 12:14839Field goal3–14
NEQ2 8:4931Punt3–14
INDQ2 7:5345Punt3–14
NEQ2 5:231178Touchdown3–21
INDQ2 1:34420Turnover3–21
NEQ2 0:38427Field goal3–24
INDQ2 0:1319End of half3–24
INDQ3 15:00524Punt3–24
NEQ3 12:4234Punt3–24
INDQ3 11:44435Touchdown10–24
NEQ3 9:48638Turnover10–24
INDQ3 6:57418Turnover10–24
NEQ3 5:00635Turnover10–24
INDQ3 2:261080Touchdown17–24
NEQ4 12:48775Touchdown17–31
INDQ4 9:19826Turnover17–37
NEQ4 7:15134Touchdown17–38
INDQ4 7:081355Turnover on downs17–38
NEQ4 3:2336Punt17–38
INDQ4 3:03660Touchdown24–38
NEQ4 1:1100End of half24–38

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck38/5936532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nyheim Hines15453.00
Jordan Wilkins6396.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron9151052
Chester Rogers811660
Ryan Grant69580
Nyheim Hines79450
Erik Swoope33441
Marcus Johnson22260
Zach Pascal17120
Jordan Wilkins2290
Robert Turbin0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady34/4434132

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel18985.41
James White200.00
Tom Brady3-1-0.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White1014771
Rob Gronkowski67750
Julian Edelman79570
Josh Gordon24501
Chris Hogan34340
Phillip Dorsett33250
Sony Michel11120
Cordarrelle Patterson22111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

42.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.13
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.87