2014 · CON

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

7·45

Patriots

New England

QB Tom Brady

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

52

Model margin

+3.0est.

NE perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.029EPA / play+0.090
  • 45.9%Success rate46.4%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.173
  • -0.221EPA / rush-0.046
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +1.10CPOE+1.32
  • 42.2%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.38
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2021 · W15NE @ IND17–27IND
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE
2013 · playoffsIND @ NE22–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–NE
INDQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:5737Punt0–0
NEQ1 12:27626Touchdown0–7
INDQ1 10:151242Missed field goal0–7
NEQ1 4:50859Touchdown0–14
INDQ1 1:20513Punt0–14
NEQ2 14:441044Turnover0–14
INDQ2 9:111273Touchdown7–14
NEQ2 4:541552Field goal7–17
INDQ2 0:0900End of half7–17
NEQ3 15:00987Touchdown7–24
INDQ3 10:0332Punt7–24
NEQ3 8:55967Touchdown7–31
INDQ3 3:19420Turnover7–37
NEQ3 2:14113Touchdown7–38
INDQ3 2:0840Punt7–38
NEQ3 1:151140Touchdown7–45
INDQ4 10:05642Turnover7–45
NEQ4 7:2431Punt7–45
INDQ4 5:4535Punt7–45
NEQ4 3:4231Punt7–45
INDQ4 1:51311End of half7–45

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck12/3312602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dan Herron10515.10
Andrew Luck4184.50
Zurlon Tipton5142.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.Y. Hilton16360
Dwayne Allen46300
Coby Fleener34300
Hakeem Nicks13150
Dan Herron24110
Zurlon Tipton1440
Reggie Wayne0200
Jack Doyle0200
Donte Moncrief0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady23/3522631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount301484.93
Tom Brady3134.30
Julian Edelman11212.00
Jonas Gray441.00
Shane Vereen122.00
Danny Amendola1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julian Edelman911980
Shane Vereen34410
Rob Gronkowski38281
Brandon LaFell46280
Danny Amendola1380
Michael Hoomanawanui1160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.79%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.01