Closing spread
NE -7
Total
52
Model margin
+3.0est.
NE perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.029EPA / play+0.090
- 45.9%Success rate46.4%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.173
- -0.221EPA / rush-0.046
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.6%
- +1.10CPOE+1.32
- 42.2%Third-down rate45.6%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 2.01Points / drive2.38
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. NE are 16-10-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 12/33 | 126 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Herron | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 4 | 6 | 30 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Dan Herron | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Zurlon Tipton | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 23/35 | 226 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 30 | 148 | 4.9 | 3 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Julian Edelman | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Edelman | 9 | 11 | 98 | 0 |
| Shane Vereen | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 3 | 8 | 28 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Danny Amendola | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.01