2021 · Week 15

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

17·27

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Carson Wentz

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NE -1

Total

46

Model margin

+1.3est.

IND perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapColts
  • +0.070EPA / play+0.060
  • 48.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.055
  • -0.012EPA / rush+0.065
  • 11.1%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +2.93CPOE-2.41
  • 45.5%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
  • 2.41Points / drive2.35
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 18–10 since 1999

IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13IND @ NE25–24IND
2023 · W10IND @ NE10–6IND
2022 · W9IND @ NE3–26NE
2018 · W5IND @ NE24–38NE
2015 · W6NE @ IND34–27NE
2014 · playoffsIND @ NE7–45NE
2014 · W11NE @ IND42–20NE
2013 · playoffsIND @ NE22–43NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–IND
INDQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NEQ1 13:53820Punt0–0
INDQ1 8:51878Touchdown0–7
NEQ1 3:53612Opp touchdown0–14
NEQ1 0:1436Punt0–14
INDQ2 13:281358Field goal0–17
NEQ2 4:31765Turnover0–17
INDQ2 1:43317End of half0–17
NEQ3 15:0039Turnover0–17
INDQ3 13:383-8Field goal0–20
NEQ3 11:49727Turnover on downs0–20
INDQ3 8:12716Missed field goal0–20
NEQ3 4:33976Touchdown7–20
INDQ4 14:55321Turnover7–20
NEQ4 13:251151Field goal10–20
INDQ4 8:57819Punt10–20
NEQ4 3:48874Touchdown17–20
INDQ4 2:21269Touchdown17–27
NEQ4 2:01625Turnover on downs17–27
INDQ4 1:1000End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones26/4529922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson10363.60
Kendrick Bourne2199.50
Mac Jones11212.00
Jakobi Meyers199.00
Brandon Bolden430.80
Jonnu Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry68772
N'Keal Harry25520
Kendrick Bourne33440
Jakobi Meyers612440
Brandon Bolden35410
Nelson Agholor46340
Rhamondre Stevenson1140
Jonnu Smith1330
Gunner Olszewski0100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz5/125711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Taylor291705.91
Ashton Dulin23919.50
Carson Wentz8172.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Pascal12230
T.Y. Hilton11190
Nyheim Hines1281
Michael Pittman1570
Jack Doyle1100
Mo Alie-Cox0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.5%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.26