Closing spread
NE -1
Total
46
Model margin
+1.3est.
IND perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Colts
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play+0.060
- 48.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.055
- -0.012EPA / rush+0.065
- 11.1%Explosive rate9.8%
- +2.93CPOE-2.41
- 45.5%Third-down rate41.9%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate60.3%
- 2.41Points / drive2.35
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 18–10 since 1999
IND have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.6 points. IND are 10-16-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 26/45 | 299 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 6 | 8 | 77 | 2 |
| N'Keal Harry | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 12 | 44 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 5/12 | 57 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 29 | 170 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 8 | 17 | 2.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.26