Closing spread
SF -11
Total
42.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play-0.036
- 36.9%Success rate41.7%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.247EPA / rush-0.054
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- 34.1%Third-down rate34.4%
- 45.0%Red-zone TD rate42.7%
- 1.12Points / drive1.14
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.8%
- +0.007EPA / play allowed+0.079
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 2 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 13:06 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:00 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 10:38 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:02 | 6 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 6:08 | 15 | 67 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SF | Q2 13:29 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:51 | 3 | 61 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| SF | Q2 9:54 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NO | Q2 5:59 | 6 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 14–14 |
| SF | Q2 2:32 | 7 | 20 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| NO | Q2 0:30 | 3 | -9 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| SF | Q3 9:46 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 21–14 |
| NO | Q3 7:18 | 11 | 46 | Punt | 21–14 |
| SF | Q3 1:19 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 21–14 |
| NO | Q4 14:02 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 21–14 |
| SF | Q4 11:41 | 8 | 79 | Turnover on downs | 21–14 |
| NO | Q4 8:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 21–14 |
| SF | Q4 6:53 | 14 | 28 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| NO | Q4 2:03 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 21–28 |
| SF | Q4 1:31 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 21–28 |
| NO | Q4 1:31 | 9 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 21–28 |
| SF | Q4 0:28 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Hobert | 20/37 | 223 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 22 | 80 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Poole | 2 | 3 | 69 | 1 |
| Eddie Kennison | 5 | 12 | 46 | 1 |
| Lawrence Dawsey | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Young | 23/35 | 258 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Steve Young | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 5 | 88 | 0 |
| Lawrence Phillips | 5 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 5 | 8 | 49 | 2 |
| Jerry Rice | 5 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Chad Fann | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.3%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.68
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.66