2012 · Week 12

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

31·21

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

50

Model margin

+1.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Saints wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSaints
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.094
  • 47.9%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.170EPA / dropback+0.160
  • +0.029EPA / rush-0.039
  • 12.9%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +5.02CPOE+0.89
  • 35.1%Third-down rate43.1%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.17
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2011 · playoffsNO @ SF32–36SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NO
NOQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:2239Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:1637Punt0–0
SFQ1 9:27462Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 7:211079Touchdown7–7
SFQ1 1:45630Punt7–7
NOQ2 13:551036Punt7–7
NOQ2 8:41211Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 7:53843Punt7–14
NOQ2 3:3839Punt7–14
SFQ2 1:53412Turnover7–14
NOQ2 0:3820Opp touchdown14–14
NOQ2 0:2200End of half14–14
SFQ3 15:00680Touchdown21–14
NOQ3 12:172-8Opp touchdown28–14
NOQ3 11:30977Touchdown28–21
SFQ3 7:19417Punt28–21
NOQ3 5:13713Punt28–21
SFQ3 2:181590Field goal31–21
NOQ4 7:5088Turnover on downs31–21
SFQ4 5:0634Missed field goal31–21
NOQ4 4:4246Turnover on downs31–21
SFQ4 3:58728Missed field goal31–21
NOQ4 1:05552End of half31–21

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/2523111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore19834.40
Kendall Hunter4287.00
Colin Kaepernick6274.51
Anthony Dixon155.00
Brandon Jacobs111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker33810
Mario Manningham55690
Michael Crabtree35260
Frank Gore23181
Randy Moss0100
Vernon Davis0100
Kyle Williams0100
Kendall Hunter0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/4126732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory8344.30
Mark Ingram10272.70
Pierre Thomas100.00
Drew Brees2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Sproles79650
Lance Moore36610
Marques Colston45361
Jimmy Graham46330
Joseph Morgan12330
David Thomas45241
Devery Henderson1360
Pierre Thomas0100
Mark Ingram0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+1.38