Closing spread
SF -1
Total
50
Model margin
+1.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.094
- 47.9%Success rate47.2%
- +0.170EPA / dropback+0.160
- +0.029EPA / rush-0.039
- 12.9%Explosive rate8.9%
- +5.02CPOE+0.89
- 35.1%Third-down rate43.1%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate73.6%
- 1.92Points / drive2.17
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/25 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 3 | 81 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 5 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 18 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/41 | 267 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Sproles | 7 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 4 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.19
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.38