2022 · Week 12

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

0·13

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

SF -9.5

Total

44

Model margin

+5.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge map49ers
  • -0.037EPA / play+0.084
  • 45.5%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.021
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.61CPOE-1.99
  • 40.9%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.20
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF
2011 · playoffsNO @ SF32–36SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–SF
NOQ1 15:00413Turnover0–0
SFQ1 12:551038Field goal0–3
NOQ1 8:01431Punt0–3
SFQ1 5:43628Punt0–3
NOQ1 2:05546Punt0–3
SFQ2 14:14613Punt0–3
NOQ2 10:2546Punt0–3
SFQ2 9:171178Turnover on downs0–3
NOQ2 3:0149Punt0–3
SFQ2 1:47961Touchdown0–10
NOQ2 0:13214End of half0–10
SFQ3 15:001142Field goal0–13
NOQ3 10:251150Missed field goal0–13
SFQ3 4:0737Punt0–13
NOQ3 1:511372Turnover0–13
SFQ4 11:0534Punt0–13
NOQ4 9:351019Turnover on downs0–13
SFQ4 6:18948End of half0–13

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/2920400
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andy Dalton4215.30
Taysom Hill6132.20
Alvin Kamara7131.90
Mark Ingram4102.50
Rashid Shaheed166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave59620
Rashid Shaheed23530
Alvin Kamara67370
Jarvis Landry24200
Adam Trautman11170
Tre'Quan Smith1180
Taysom Hill1270
Mark Ingram0100
Juwan Johnson0200

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo26/3722210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell7355.00
Christian McCaffrey11322.90
Jordan Mason5255.00
Jimmy Garoppolo441.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk58650
Jauan Jennings67491
Deebo Samuel Sr.37430
George Kittle34260
Christian McCaffrey46170
Ray-Ray McCloud11120
Elijah Mitchell2280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.16