Closing spread
SF -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+5.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play+0.084
- 45.5%Success rate46.1%
- +0.018EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.021
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.61CPOE-1.99
- 40.9%Third-down rate45.1%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.59Points / drive2.20
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/29 | 204 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 9 | 62 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 26/37 | 222 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 6 | 7 | 49 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.16