Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
50
Model margin
+2.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.115
- 41.8%Success rate47.2%
- +0.156EPA / dropback+0.209
- -0.110EPA / rush-0.077
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.63CPOE+5.36
- 37.8%Third-down rate45.1%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
- 1.99Points / drive2.21
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 17/31 | 127 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 9 | 56 | 1 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 5 | 33 | 1 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jon Baldwin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/43 | 305 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 5 | 7 | 80 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 2 | 78 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 12 | 41 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Nick Toon | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.33