2013 · Week 11

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

20·23

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -3.5

Total

50

Model margin

+2.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Saints wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSaints
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.115
  • 41.8%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.156EPA / dropback+0.209
  • -0.110EPA / rush-0.077
  • 10.6%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -1.63CPOE+5.36
  • 37.8%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.21
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF
2011 · playoffsNO @ SF32–36SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NO
SFQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:32518Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:4636Punt0–0
NOQ1 9:2538Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:5530Punt0–0
NOQ1 7:281292Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 0:44932Punt0–7
SFQ2 10:26211Touchdown7–7
NOQ2 10:1635Punt7–7
SFQ2 9:22514Turnover7–7
SFQ2 6:25631Field goal10–7
NOQ2 3:34321Touchdown10–14
SFQ2 1:58517Punt10–14
NOQ2 0:0200End of half10–14
NOQ3 15:00626Turnover10–14
SFQ3 12:07322Touchdown17–14
NOQ3 10:521250Turnover on downs17–14
SFQ3 4:341249Field goal20–14
NOQ4 13:23877Field goal20–17
SFQ4 7:5031Punt20–17
NOQ4 6:48941Field goal20–17
NOQ4 2:2723Field goal20–20
SFQ4 2:0637Punt20–20
NOQ4 1:41547Field goal20–23

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick17/3112721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore13483.70
Colin Kaepernick3258.30
LaMichael James273.50
Kendall Hunter410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin69561
Vernon Davis45331
Vance McDonald12100
Frank Gore2380
Mario Manningham1480
LaMichael James1140
Jon Baldwin0300

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees30/4330511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas11494.50
Mark Ingram6254.20
Darren Sproles3165.30
Drew Brees1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston57800
Robert Meachem22780
Jimmy Graham612410
Pierre Thomas55350
Lance Moore34230
Darren Sproles44190
Kenny Stills12110
Nick Toon1180
Mark Ingram1240
Josh Hill1231

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.33