Closing spread
SF -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.076
- 48.5%Success rate42.4%
- +0.175EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.033EPA / rush-0.155
- 8.2%Explosive rate5.5%
- +5.72CPOE+1.72
- 50.4%Third-down rate39.4%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.48Points / drive1.53
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 26/39 | 279 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jauan Jennings | 5 | 10 | 89 | 1 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Jake Tonges | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Luke Farrell | 2 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brayden Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 25/34 | 207 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 21 | 99 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Spencer Rattler | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 10 | 54 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 52 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 9 | 49 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.54