2025 · Week 2

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Mac Jones

26·21

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

SF -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Saints wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSaints
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.076
  • 48.5%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.033EPA / rush-0.155
  • 8.2%Explosive rate5.5%
  • +5.72CPOE+1.72
  • 50.4%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 2.48Points / drive1.53
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF
2011 · playoffsNO @ SF32–36SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NO
NOQ1 15:00648Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 13:0930Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:44519Punt0–0
SFQ1 11:211565Touchdown6–0
NOQ1 3:2544Punt6–0
SFQ1 1:25839Field goal9–0
NOQ2 11:2331Punt9–0
SFQ2 9:09411Punt9–0
NOQ2 6:481284Touchdown9–7
SFQ2 1:14877Touchdown16–7
NOQ2 0:071-1End of half16–7
SFQ3 15:0077Turnover16–7
NOQ3 12:191047Touchdown16–14
SFQ3 7:11749Field goal19–14
NOQ3 3:20418Turnover19–14
SFQ3 1:38878Touchdown26–14
NOQ4 12:181561Touchdown26–21
SFQ4 6:18417Punt26–21
NOQ4 4:353-1Punt26–21
SFQ4 3:0234Punt26–21
NOQ4 2:40827Turnover on downs26–21
SFQ4 0:5700End of half26–21

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones26/3927930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey13554.20
Brian Robinson6203.30
Mac Jones661.00
Ricky Pearsall1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jauan Jennings510891
Ricky Pearsall46560
Christian McCaffrey67521
Kendrick Bourne33320
Jake Tonges45310
Luke Farrell23151
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100
Brayden Willis0100
Brian Robinson11-10

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler25/3420730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara21994.70
Spencer Rattler4143.50
Kendre Miller581.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave610540
Rashid Shaheed45521
Juwan Johnson59491
Brandin Cooks22260
Alvin Kamara66210
Devaughn Vele1131
Kendre Miller1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

7.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.43
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.54