2020 · Week 10

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Nick Mullens

13·27

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -9.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+4.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Saints wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSaints
  • +0.010EPA / play+0.096
  • 45.8%Success rate47.7%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.106EPA / rush+0.039
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -1.74CPOE+2.58
  • 39.6%Third-down rate46.0%
  • 71.8%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
  • 2.03Points / drive2.72
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF
2011 · playoffsNO @ SF32–36SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NO
SFQ1 15:001360Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 7:4338Punt7–0
SFQ1 6:223-12Punt7–0
SFQ1 4:40838Field goal10–0
NOQ2 14:563-6Field goal10–3
SFQ2 13:48422Punt10–3
NOQ2 11:29421Punt10–3
NOQ2 9:21511Touchdown10–10
SFQ2 6:481043Turnover on downs10–10
NOQ2 1:50657Touchdown10–17
SFQ2 1:15415Punt10–17
NOQ2 0:1500End of half10–17
NOQ3 15:00520Punt10–17
SFQ3 11:43932Turnover10–17
NOQ3 6:5031Punt10–17
SFQ3 4:493-4Punt10–17
NOQ3 3:211153Field goal10–20
SFQ4 12:1565Punt10–20
NOQ4 10:0532Punt10–20
NOQ4 8:59322Touchdown10–27
SFQ4 7:29634Field goal13–27
NOQ4 5:54744Turnover13–27
SFQ4 3:13548Turnover13–27
NOQ4 2:25210End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Mullens24/3824712
C.J. Beathard0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon18331.80
JaMycal Hasty3134.30
Nick Mullens133.00
Austin Walter133.00
Brandon Aiyuk1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk714751
Jordan Reed56620
Austin Walter11270
Kendrick Bourne45260
Richie James35260
Ross Dwelley12220
Jerick McKinnon13130
JaMycal Hasty22-40

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees8/137610
Jameis Winston6/106300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray9576.30
Taysom Hill8455.60
Alvin Kamara8151.92
Drew Brees1-1-1.00
Jameis Winston4-2-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara78831
Michael Thomas27270
Deonte Harty44240
Emmanuel Sanders1150
Jared Cook0200
Tre'Quan Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.2%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+4.93