Closing spread
NO -9.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play+0.096
- 45.8%Success rate47.7%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.106EPA / rush+0.039
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.74CPOE+2.58
- 39.6%Third-down rate46.0%
- 71.8%Red-zone TD rate72.9%
- 2.03Points / drive2.72
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 24/38 | 247 | 1 | 2 |
| C.J. Beathard | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 18 | 33 | 1.8 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Austin Walter | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 7 | 14 | 75 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Austin Walter | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Richie James | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 8/13 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 6/10 | 63 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 57 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 8 | 83 | 1 |
| Michael Thomas | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.2%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+4.93