Closing spread
NO -5
Total
53
Model margin
+0.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.089
- 48.2%Success rate39.6%
- +0.161EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.169
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.38CPOE-5.73
- 49.0%Third-down rate34.6%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 2.39Points / drive1.59
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/39 | 323 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 15 | 158 | 10.5 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 23 | 87 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 8 | 73 | 2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 6 | 66 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 24/39 | 398 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DuJuan Harris | 10 | 59 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Patton | 6 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 6 | 84 | 1 |
| DuJuan Harris | 5 | 6 | 83 | 1 |
| Garrett Celek | 4 | 6 | 76 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Aaron Burbridge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.11