2016 · Week 9

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

41·23

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NO -5

Total

53

Model margin

+0.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge map49ers
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.089
  • 48.2%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.169
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +4.38CPOE-5.73
  • 49.0%Third-down rate34.6%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.59
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. SF are 10-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF
2011 · playoffsNO @ SF32–36SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–SF
NOQ1 15:00711Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:18760Field goal0–3
NOQ1 9:251083Touchdown7–3
SFQ1 5:11424Turnover7–3
NOQ1 3:36512Touchdown14–3
SFQ1 2:14751Turnover on downs14–3
NOQ2 13:451276Touchdown21–3
SFQ2 7:40465Touchdown21–10
NOQ2 5:56175Touchdown28–10
SFQ2 5:45547Field goal28–13
NOQ2 3:53521Punt28–13
SFQ2 1:47372Touchdown28–20
NOQ2 1:05666Field goal31–20
SFQ3 15:00767Turnover31–20
NOQ3 12:0737Punt31–20
SFQ3 10:14529Field goal31–23
NOQ3 9:071258Missed field goal31–23
SFQ3 2:553-2Punt31–23
NOQ3 1:36777Touchdown38–23
SFQ4 13:1330Punt38–23
NOQ4 12:54953Field goal41–23
SFQ4 8:521060Turnover41–23
NOQ4 6:05522Punt41–23
SFQ4 2:54213Turnover41–23
NOQ4 2:27212End of half41–23

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/3932330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram1515810.51
Tim Hightower23873.81
Drew Brees2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas58732
Brandin Cooks56660
Coby Fleener36420
Josh Hill44400
Willie Snead37360
Brandon Coleman22250
Tim Hightower11150
Mark Ingram22131
Travaris Cadet1140

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick24/3939821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DuJuan Harris10595.90
Colin Kaepernick5234.60
Mike Davis2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Quinton Patton691060
Vance McDonald36841
DuJuan Harris56831
Garrett Celek46760
Jeremy Kerley36220
Torrey Smith23180
Mike Davis1190
Aaron Burbridge0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.11