2014 · Week 10

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

27·24

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -6

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Saints wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSaints
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.067
  • 42.6%Success rate47.9%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.126
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.043
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -2.41CPOE+3.60
  • 40.5%Third-down rate48.2%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 1.44Points / drive2.11
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2019 · W14SF @ NO48–46SF
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF
2011 · playoffsNO @ SF32–36SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NO
NOQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
SFQ1 14:06312Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 13:0137Punt7–0
SFQ1 11:321374Touchdown14–0
NOQ1 4:17959Field goal14–3
SFQ1 0:03616Punt14–3
NOQ2 11:51560Touchdown14–10
SFQ2 9:13880Touchdown21–10
NOQ2 4:4536Punt21–10
SFQ2 3:08426Punt21–10
NOQ2 1:4834Punt21–10
SFQ2 1:131-2Turnover21–10
NOQ2 1:06420Turnover21–10
SFQ2 0:0400End of half21–10
SFQ3 15:00628Punt21–10
NOQ3 12:02631Punt21–10
SFQ3 8:303-5Punt21–10
NOQ3 6:441064Touchdown21–17
SFQ3 2:4935Punt21–17
NOQ3 1:09719Punt21–17
SFQ4 12:18826Punt21–17
NOQ4 7:151280Touchdown21–24
SFQ4 1:52751Field goal24–24
NOQ4 0:44433End of half24–24
NOOT632Punt24–24
SFOT620Punt24–24
NOOT56Turnover27–24
SFOT00Field goal27–24

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick14/3221010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore23813.51
Carlos Hyde4369.01
Colin Kaepernick4246.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin615951
Michael Crabtree38620
Steve Johnson33430
Vernon Davis1480
Frank Gore1120

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/4729232

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram271204.40
Travaris Cadet294.50
Drew Brees273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks58901
Jimmy Graham1013762
Marques Colston24360
Kenny Stills36260
Mark Ingram35190
Travaris Cadet35180
Benjamin Watson13130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.03