Closing spread
NO -6
Total
49.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.067
- 42.6%Success rate47.9%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.7%
- -2.41CPOE+3.60
- 40.5%Third-down rate48.2%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.44Points / drive2.11
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 14/32 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 23 | 81 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Carlos Hyde | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 6 | 15 | 95 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/47 | 292 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 27 | 120 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 90 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 10 | 13 | 76 | 2 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.03