Closing spread
NO -1
Total
45
Model margin
+2.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.077EPA / play+0.084
- 44.8%Success rate47.0%
- +0.194EPA / dropback+0.172
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.067
- 12.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.34CPOE+3.92
- 45.8%Third-down rate43.9%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 2.28Points / drive2.45
- 2.1%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 12–9 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 26/35 | 349 | 4 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1/1 | 35 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 10 | 69 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 7 | 9 | 157 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 8 | 67 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 18 | 2 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/40 | 349 | 5 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 7 | 69 | 9.9 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 11 | 15 | 134 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 2 | 64 | 2 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2 | 4 | 29 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.94