2019 · Week 14

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

48·46

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -1

Total

45

Model margin

+2.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Saints wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSaints
  • +0.077EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.8%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.194EPA / dropback+0.172
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.067
  • 12.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.34CPOE+3.92
  • 45.8%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 2.28Points / drive2.45
  • 2.1%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 12–9 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.9 points. NO are 11-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2SF @ NO26–21SF
2022 · W12NO @ SF0–13SF
2020 · W10SF @ NO13–27NO
2016 · W9NO @ SF41–23NO
2014 · W10SF @ NO27–24SF
2013 · W11SF @ NO20–23NO
2012 · W12SF @ NO31–21SF
2011 · playoffsNO @ SF32–36SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–NO
NOQ1 15:00973Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 11:34680Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 8:26654Touchdown7–13
SFQ1 4:513-6Punt7–13
NOQ1 2:28529Touchdown7–20
SFQ2 14:57175Touchdown14–20
NOQ2 14:431284Touchdown14–27
SFQ2 7:29375Touchdown21–27
NOQ2 5:5933Punt21–27
SFQ2 4:16995Touchdown28–27
NOQ2 0:42319End of half28–27
SFQ3 15:00314Turnover28–27
NOQ3 13:3033Field goal28–30
SFQ3 12:3636Punt28–30
NOQ3 10:3410Turnover28–30
SFQ3 10:28220Touchdown35–30
NOQ3 9:40945Field goal35–33
SFQ3 4:5132Punt35–33
NOQ3 2:56615Turnover on downs35–33
SFQ3 0:561554Touchdown42–33
NOQ4 8:59670Touchdown42–40
SFQ4 6:061052Field goal45–40
NOQ4 2:23870Touchdown45–46
SFQ4 0:53550Field goal48–46

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo26/3534941
Emmanuel Sanders1/13510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert10696.91
Matt Breida6549.00
Deebo Samuel Sr.23316.50
Tevin Coleman362.00
Jimmy Garoppolo210.50
Richie James1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders791571
Deebo Samuel Sr.58760
George Kittle68671
Raheem Mostert22401
Kendrick Bourne34182
Matt Breida1140

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/4034950
Taysom Hill0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray7699.90
Alvin Kamara13251.90
Taysom Hill5132.60
Deonte Harty188.00
Drew Brees111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas11151341
Jared Cook22642
Ted Ginn46500
Tre'Quan Smith24291
Latavius Murray23250
Alvin Kamara46180
Deonte Harty11130
Taysom Hill11120
Josh Hill2341

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+2.94