1999 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kordell Stewart

23·20

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Scott Mitchell

PSINet Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

38

Model margin

+5.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.091
  • 41.6%Success rate36.5%
  • -0.073EPA / dropback-0.084
  • -0.048EPA / rush-0.100
  • 6.4%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 37.4%Third-down rate28.4%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
  • 1.27Points / drive1.00
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
  • -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.151

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
BALQ1 15:0033Turnover0–0
PITQ1 13:58635Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 10:5733Punt7–0
PITQ1 9:32417Punt7–0
BALQ1 7:201168Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 1:3943Punt7–7
BALQ1 0:20639Punt7–7
PITQ2 13:1932Punt7–7
BALQ2 11:3631Turnover7–7
PITQ2 10:5137Punt7–7
BALQ2 8:42515Punt7–7
PITQ2 6:241168Touchdown14–7
BALQ2 1:4634Field goal14–10
PITQ2 1:15311End of half14–10
PITQ3 15:0038Punt14–10
BALQ3 13:2256Punt14–10
PITQ3 11:2035Punt14–10
BALQ3 9:1832Punt14–10
PITQ3 8:1531Punt14–10
BALQ3 7:171-6Turnover14–10
PITQ3 7:13511Field goal17–10
BALQ3 4:16526Punt17–10
PITQ3 2:323-1Punt17–10
BALQ3 0:3333Punt17–10
PITQ4 14:04625Punt17–10
BALQ4 12:26851Field goal17–13
PITQ4 7:551046Field goal20–13
BALQ4 2:39677Touchdown20–20
PITQ4 1:22432Field goal23–20

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kordell Stewart18/2713800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kordell Stewart8516.41
Richard Huntley10494.91
Jerome Bettis16462.90
Hines Ward133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtney Hawkins68540
Troy Edwards57380
Hines Ward25310
Richard Huntley23100
Mark Bruener2340

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stoney Case7/1513010
Scott Mitchell7/164802

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett221014.61
Chuck Evans4133.30
Stoney Case188.00
Priest Holmes122.00
Scott Mitchell111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail412531
Jermaine Lewis36480
Justin Armour23430
Aaron Pierce22190
Lovett Purnell23100
Greg DeLong1150
Chuck Evans0100
Pat Johnson0200
Errict Rhett0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.22