Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
38
Model margin
+5.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.091
- 41.6%Success rate36.5%
- -0.073EPA / dropback-0.084
- -0.048EPA / rush-0.100
- 6.4%Explosive rate7.5%
- 37.4%Third-down rate28.4%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate40.6%
- 1.27Points / drive1.00
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.7%
- -0.045EPA / play allowed-0.151
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 18/27 | 138 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kordell Stewart | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Richard Huntley | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jerome Bettis | 16 | 46 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtney Hawkins | 6 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Troy Edwards | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Richard Huntley | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Bruener | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 7/15 | 130 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 7/16 | 48 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 22 | 101 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Chuck Evans | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Priest Holmes | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Scott Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 4 | 12 | 53 | 1 |
| Jermaine Lewis | 3 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Justin Armour | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Aaron Pierce | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Lovett Purnell | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.22