Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play+0.027
- 44.6%Success rate44.1%
- +0.036EPA / dropback+0.046
- +0.038EPA / rush-0.001
- 10.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- +2.86CPOE+0.58
- 41.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.30Points / drive2.11
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 11/18 | 238 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 20 | 126 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 4 | 6 | 138 | 2 |
| Devontez Walker | 2 | 2 | 46 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 31/47 | 294 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 8 | 9 | 64 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 3 | 7 | 55 | 1 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.41