2025 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

24·26

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.037EPA / play+0.027
  • 44.6%Success rate44.1%
  • +0.036EPA / dropback+0.046
  • +0.038EPA / rush-0.001
  • 10.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +2.86CPOE+0.58
  • 41.4%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.11
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT
2022 · W14BAL @ PIT16–14BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:008100Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 10:5441Punt7–0
BALQ1 9:2583Punt7–0
PITQ1 4:59720Turnover on downs7–0
BALQ1 1:42523Field goal10–0
PITQ2 13:33736Field goal10–3
BALQ2 8:5246Punt10–3
PITQ2 6:1030Punt10–3
BALQ2 5:39533Punt10–3
PITQ2 3:091481End of half10–3
PITQ3 15:001267Touchdown10–10
BALQ3 8:2330Turnover10–10
PITQ3 7:25519Field goal10–13
BALQ3 4:28518Punt10–13
PITQ3 1:04936Punt10–13
BALQ4 10:52471Touchdown17–13
PITQ4 8:42865Touchdown17–20
BALQ4 3:49373Touchdown24–20
PITQ4 2:20665Touchdown24–26
BALQ4 0:55534Missed field goal24–26

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson11/1823831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry201266.30
Lamar Jackson492.30
Keaton Mitchell221.00
Rasheen Ali100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers461382
Devontez Walker22461
Isaiah Likely22320
Mark Andrews23140
Patrick Ricard1180
DeAndre Hopkins0200
Derrick Henry0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers31/4729410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren14664.70
Aaron Rodgers12020.00
Kenny Gainwell5102.01
Jonnu Smith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Gainwell89640
Calvin Austin III37551
Pat Freiermuth35510
Adam Thielen36430
Marquez Valdes-Scantling57340
Jaylen Warren55330
Scott Miller2290
Jonnu Smith1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+0.41