Closing spread
BAL -1
Total
35.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.004
- 45.1%Success rate45.3%
- +0.016EPA / dropback-0.020
- +0.006EPA / rush+0.034
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.33CPOE-1.40
- 43.5%Third-down rate42.2%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.65Points / drive1.87
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 15/27 | 168 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 22 | 111 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 76 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 5 | 2 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 14/21 | 130 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 17 | 93 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Andy Isabella | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 9 | 9 | 100 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.90