2022 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

16·13

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BAL -1

Total

35.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.1%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback-0.020
  • +0.006EPA / rush+0.034
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.33CPOE-1.40
  • 43.5%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.87
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W14BAL @ PIT16–14BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:001478Field goal3–0
BALQ1 7:011461Field goal3–3
PITQ2 14:09521Punt3–3
BALQ2 10:5039Punt3–3
PITQ2 8:461044Missed field goal3–3
BALQ2 3:301159Touchdown3–10
PITQ2 0:0700End of half3–10
BALQ3 15:00857Field goal3–13
PITQ3 9:311143Field goal6–13
BALQ3 3:42425Punt6–13
PITQ3 0:461280Field goal9–13
BALQ4 9:443-2Punt9–13
PITQ4 8:4157Punt9–13
BALQ4 6:3238Punt9–13
PITQ4 4:161180Touchdown16–13
BALQ4 0:56523Turnover16–13
PITQ4 0:1300End of half16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett15/2716810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris221115.00
Jaylen Warren12766.30
Gunner Olszewski166.00
Kenny Pickett520.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth36360
Diontae Johnson27350
Steven Sims34340
George Pickens24290
Jaylen Warren33220
Najee Harris23121

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley14/2113011

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins17935.50
Tyler Huntley7243.40
Gus Edwards320.70
Andy Isabella111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews991000
Isaiah Likely35121
DeSean Jackson1290
Demarcus Robinson1390
Josh Oliver0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.90