2024 · WC · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

14·28

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -9.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+7.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.199
  • 40.7%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.328
  • -0.124EPA / rush+0.053
  • 9.8%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +3.65CPOE+4.67
  • 39.7%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.80
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT
2022 · W14BAL @ PIT16–14BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:00619Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:581399Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 4:4538Punt0–7
BALQ1 2:34634Punt0–7
PITQ2 14:0739Punt0–7
BALQ2 12:051385Touchdown0–14
PITQ2 4:09624Punt0–14
BALQ2 1:53890Touchdown0–21
PITQ2 0:0200End of half0–21
BALQ3 15:00519Punt0–21
PITQ3 11:29998Touchdown7–21
BALQ3 8:05470Touchdown7–28
PITQ3 5:49570Touchdown14–28
BALQ3 3:2436Punt14–28
PITQ3 2:27616Punt14–28
BALQ4 14:521023Punt14–28
PITQ4 8:36737Turnover on downs14–28
BALQ4 6:061039End of half14–28

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/2927020
Justin Fields0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris6172.80
Russell Wilson362.00
Jaylen Warren263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens55871
Najee Harris33410
Mike Williams12370
Van Jefferson22371
Calvin Austin III12250
Jaylen Warren45190
Pat Freiermuth34150
Darnell Washington1390

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/2117520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry261867.22
Lamar Jackson15815.40
Steven Sims11515.00
Justice Hill6122.00
Mark Andrews252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely34530
Mark Andrews23270
Nelson Agholor11250
Rashod Bateman22241
Tylan Wallace12210
Justice Hill44131
Anthony Miller33120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.55.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.07