Closing spread
BAL -9.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+7.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.199
- 40.7%Success rate49.4%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.328
- -0.124EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.8%Explosive rate12.0%
- +3.65CPOE+4.67
- 39.7%Third-down rate47.9%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 1.86Points / drive2.80
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/29 | 270 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 5 | 5 | 87 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/21 | 175 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 26 | 186 | 7.2 | 2 |
| Lamar Jackson | 15 | 81 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Steven Sims | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.07