2024 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

16·18

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

48

Model margin

-3.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.199EPA / play-0.027
  • 49.4%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.328EPA / dropback+0.051
  • +0.053EPA / rush-0.124
  • 12.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +4.67CPOE+3.65
  • 47.9%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 76.9%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 2.80Points / drive1.86
  • 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT
2022 · W14BAL @ PIT16–14BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:0027Turnover0–0
PITQ1 14:11728Field goal0–3
BALQ1 10:40410Punt0–3
PITQ1 8:3934Punt0–3
BALQ1 6:48446Missed field goal0–3
PITQ1 5:1049Turnover on downs0–3
BALQ1 3:07514Missed field goal0–3
PITQ1 1:383-10Punt0–3
BALQ2 14:48530Punt0–3
PITQ2 12:31950Field goal0–6
BALQ2 7:39414Punt0–6
PITQ2 6:093-2Punt0–6
BALQ2 5:07775Touchdown7–6
PITQ2 1:1639Punt7–6
BALQ2 0:3814Turnover7–6
PITQ2 0:2945Field goal7–9
BALQ2 0:0700End of half7–9
PITQ3 15:00726Field goal7–12
BALQ3 10:461129Field goal10–12
PITQ3 6:121181Field goal10–15
BALQ3 0:5632Punt10–15
PITQ4 14:211063Turnover10–15
BALQ4 9:23325Turnover10–15
PITQ4 8:14832Field goal10–18
BALQ4 3:351074Touchdown16–18
PITQ4 1:06310End of half16–18

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson16/3320711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry13655.01
Lamar Jackson44611.50
Justice Hill2136.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Isaiah Likely45750
Zay Flowers26391
Rashod Bateman25300
Justice Hill47280
Mark Andrews23220
Tylan Wallace1180
Patrick Ricard1150
Nelson Agholor0100
Diontae Johnson0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson23/3620501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris18633.50
Jaylen Warren9414.60
Justin Fields2178.50
Russell Wilson410.30
Cordarrelle Patterson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens812890
Darnell Washington24420
Najee Harris45300
Jaylen Warren44270
Pat Freiermuth22140
Ben Skowronek1140
Cordarrelle Patterson1100
Van Jefferson0100
Calvin Austin III12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.7%3.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-3.90