Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
48
Model margin
-3.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.199EPA / play-0.027
- 49.4%Success rate40.7%
- +0.328EPA / dropback+0.051
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.124
- 12.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- +4.67CPOE+3.65
- 47.9%Third-down rate39.7%
- 76.9%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 2.80Points / drive1.86
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16/33 | 207 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 4 | 46 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 5 | 75 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 6 | 39 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 23/36 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 18 | 63 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 8 | 12 | 89 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-3.90