2024 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Russell Wilson

17·34

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+7.1est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.199
  • 40.7%Success rate49.4%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.328
  • -0.124EPA / rush+0.053
  • 9.8%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +3.65CPOE+4.67
  • 39.7%Third-down rate47.9%
  • 55.4%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.80
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT
2022 · W14BAL @ PIT16–14BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
BALQ1 15:00728Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:5138Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:00641Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 5:521073Touchdown7–7
BALQ2 14:56512Punt7–7
PITQ2 13:32552Turnover7–7
BALQ2 10:57881Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 7:2830Punt7–14
BALQ2 5:57939Field goal7–17
PITQ2 1:43737Field goal10–17
PITQ3 15:0036Punt10–17
BALQ3 13:45635Punt10–17
PITQ3 9:52888Touchdown17–17
BALQ3 5:14660Touchdown17–24
PITQ3 1:50617Turnover on downs17–24
BALQ4 14:53244Turnover17–24
PITQ4 13:5723Opp touchdown17–31
PITQ4 13:06724Punt17–31
BALQ4 9:191081Field goal17–34
PITQ4 3:1057Punt17–34
BALQ4 1:3900End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3321721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren12484.00
Najee Harris9424.70
Russell Wilson3279.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Austin III45650
Jaylen Warren55440
Van Jefferson23270
Ben Skowronek22250
Mike Williams33240
Pat Freiermuth33160
Cordarrelle Patterson11121
MyCole Pruitt1211
Najee Harris0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson15/2320731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry241626.80
Justice Hill23015.00
Lamar Jackson9222.40
Zay Flowers133.00
Rasheen Ali122.00
Mark Andrews111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers581000
Mark Andrews46371
Isaiah Likely33291
Derrick Henry22270
Rashod Bateman13141
Justice Hill0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.1%5.9%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.37
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.07