Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+7.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.199
- 40.7%Success rate49.4%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.328
- -0.124EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.8%Explosive rate12.0%
- +3.65CPOE+4.67
- 39.7%Third-down rate47.9%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate76.9%
- 1.86Points / drive2.80
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/33 | 217 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin III | 4 | 5 | 65 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 15/23 | 207 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 24 | 162 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 8 | 100 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 37 | 1 |
| Isaiah Likely | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.37
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.07