Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play+0.037
- 44.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.036
- -0.001EPA / rush+0.038
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.4%
- +0.58CPOE+2.86
- 40.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 2.11Points / drive2.30
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/34 | 284 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 12 | 148 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/35 | 219 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 25 | 94 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 6 | 76 | 12.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 8 | 11 | 124 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.16