2025 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

27·22

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • +0.027EPA / play+0.037
  • 44.1%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.036
  • -0.001EPA / rush+0.038
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +0.58CPOE+2.86
  • 40.4%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.30
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT
2022 · W14BAL @ PIT16–14BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
BALQ1 15:00855Field goal0–3
PITQ1 10:58865Touchdown7–3
BALQ1 7:133-3Punt7–3
PITQ1 4:5339Punt7–3
BALQ1 3:07721Punt7–3
PITQ1 0:251168Field goal10–3
BALQ2 10:3936Turnover10–3
PITQ2 9:21629Touchdown17–3
BALQ2 6:051450Touchdown17–9
PITQ2 0:1600End of half17–9
PITQ3 15:00750Field goal20–9
BALQ3 10:57671Touchdown20–16
PITQ3 7:35790Touchdown27–16
BALQ3 3:30954Field goal27–19
PITQ4 13:43310Punt27–19
BALQ4 11:19850Field goal27–22
PITQ4 7:103-5Punt27–22
BALQ4 5:411270Turnover on downs27–22
PITQ4 2:2233Punt27–22
BALQ4 1:56846End of half27–22

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/3428410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenny Gainwell4153.81
Jaylen Warren8131.60
Kaleb Johnson242.00
Aaron Rodgers200.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf7121480
Jaylen Warren33491
Calvin Austin III12310
Kenny Gainwell67270
Ben Skowronek11130
Darnell Washington11120
Pat Freiermuth2390
Adam Thielen1140
Jonnu Smith0100
Marquez Valdes-Scantling0100
Aaron Rodgers11-90

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson19/3521911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry25943.80
Keaton Mitchell67612.70
Lamar Jackson7436.11
Zay Flowers122.00
Rasheen Ali122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers8111240
Isaiah Likely46251
Rashod Bateman23230
Charlie Kolar11190
Rasheen Ali23110
Mark Andrews1590
Derrick Henry1280
DeAndre Hopkins0100
Patrick Ricard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.16