2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

17·10

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tyler Huntley

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

34

Model margin

-1.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapRavens
  • -0.064EPA / play+0.069
  • 42.3%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.111
  • -0.069EPA / rush+0.009
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -0.21CPOE+2.73
  • 37.3%Third-down rate42.3%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.25
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT
2022 · W14BAL @ PIT16–14BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–BAL
PITQ1 15:00622Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:3737Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:081276Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 2:3633Punt7–0
PITQ1 1:3437Punt7–0
BALQ2 14:52310Turnover7–0
PITQ2 13:28418Turnover7–0
BALQ2 11:02614Punt7–0
PITQ2 7:2639Punt7–0
BALQ2 5:07671Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 2:19823Turnover7–7
BALQ2 0:0500End of half7–7
BALQ3 15:003-1Punt7–7
PITQ3 13:13415Punt7–7
BALQ3 10:213-5Punt7–7
PITQ3 8:1842Punt7–7
BALQ3 5:32731Punt7–7
PITQ3 2:50689Touchdown14–7
BALQ4 14:49926Punt14–7
PITQ4 10:0334Punt14–7
BALQ4 7:41212Turnover14–7
PITQ4 7:14825Field goal17–7
BALQ4 3:131157Field goal17–10
PITQ4 0:1600End of half17–10

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph18/2015210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris261124.31
Jaylen Warren9333.70
Calvin Austin III188.00
George Pickens133.00
Mason Rudolph2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Diontae Johnson45891
Najee Harris55210
Pat Freiermuth22210
Jaylen Warren55170
Allen Robinson0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Huntley15/2814610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards10484.80
Tyler Huntley8405.00
Melvin Gordon7182.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor55390
Isaiah Likely22311
Justice Hill310260
Charlie Kolar34230
Laquon Treadwell13160
Tylan Wallace12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.09
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.01