Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
34
Model margin
-1.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play+0.069
- 42.3%Success rate47.3%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.111
- -0.069EPA / rush+0.009
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -0.21CPOE+2.73
- 37.3%Third-down rate42.3%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.54Points / drive2.25
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 18/20 | 152 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 26 | 112 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mason Rudolph | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diontae Johnson | 4 | 5 | 89 | 1 |
| Najee Harris | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 5 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Huntley | 15/28 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Huntley | 8 | 40 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Isaiah Likely | 2 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 10 | 26 | 0 |
| Charlie Kolar | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tylan Wallace | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.01