2023 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

10·17

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

BAL -4.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.064
  • 47.3%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback-0.060
  • +0.009EPA / rush-0.069
  • 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +2.73CPOE-0.21
  • 42.3%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.54
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT
2022 · W14BAL @ PIT16–14BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
BALQ1 15:00634Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:36616Punt0–0
BALQ1 9:12759Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 6:1534Punt7–0
BALQ1 4:451464Field goal10–0
PITQ2 12:231043Punt10–0
BALQ2 8:09535Turnover10–0
PITQ2 5:31626Field goal10–3
BALQ2 3:161152Turnover on downs10–3
PITQ2 0:1300End of half10–3
PITQ3 15:0039Punt10–3
BALQ3 13:05528Punt10–3
PITQ3 10:07827Punt10–3
BALQ3 5:48531Punt10–3
PITQ3 3:14843Punt10–3
BALQ4 13:3744Safety10–5
PITQ4 11:12849Field goal10–8
BALQ4 7:1038Punt10–8
BALQ4 5:3332Turnover10–8
PITQ4 4:06880Touchdown10–14
BALQ4 1:17211Turnover10–14
PITQ4 1:0200Field goal10–17
BALQ4 0:4957Turnover on downs10–17
PITQ4 0:1500End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson22/3823601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Gus Edwards12484.00
Lamar Jackson6457.50
Justice Hill7324.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers511730
Mark Andrews610650
Nelson Agholor45640
Odell Beckham Jr.24130
Justice Hill44130
Rashod Bateman1380
Devin Duvernay0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett18/3222410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaylen Warren9404.40
Najee Harris14372.60
George Pickens11616.00
Kenny Pickett6-6-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Pickens6101301
Jaylen Warren33390
Allen Robinson59290
Najee Harris1130
Miles Boykin0100
Calvin Austin III0100
Darnell Washington0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.9%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.32