Closing spread
BAL -4.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.064
- 47.3%Success rate42.3%
- +0.111EPA / dropback-0.060
- +0.009EPA / rush-0.069
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.8%
- +2.73CPOE-0.21
- 42.3%Third-down rate37.3%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.25Points / drive1.54
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 22/38 | 236 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards | 12 | 48 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 18/32 | 224 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 14 | 37 | 2.6 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 6 | -6 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 6 | 10 | 130 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.9%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.32