Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 10/17 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 7/16 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 6 | 12 | 88 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.87
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.