Closing spread
CIN -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 59 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 12:04 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 10:53 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 10:42 | 3 | -6 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q1 9:28 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 7:21 | 9 | 67 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| CIN | Q1 3:07 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| LAC | Q1 2:56 | 3 | 20 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| CIN | Q1 1:39 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 13–7 |
| CIN | Q2 12:51 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q2 10:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–7 |
| CIN | Q2 9:27 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q2 8:28 | 8 | 24 | Punt | 13–7 |
| CIN | Q2 3:45 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 13–7 |
| LAC | Q2 3:18 | 3 | 43 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| CIN | Q2 2:08 | 6 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 28–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:54 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 28–7 |
| CIN | Q2 0:54 | 6 | 64 | End of half | 28–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 28–7 |
| CIN | Q3 13:06 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 28–7 |
| LAC | Q3 12:05 | 4 | -4 | Punt | 28–7 |
| CIN | Q3 10:52 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 28–7 |
| LAC | Q3 9:35 | 7 | 33 | Field goal | 31–7 |
| CIN | Q3 4:45 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 31–7 |
| LAC | Q3 4:30 | 10 | 38 | Field goal | 34–7 |
| CIN | Q4 14:50 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 34–7 |
| LAC | Q4 13:19 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 34–7 |
| CIN | Q4 11:39 | 10 | 37 | Punt | 34–7 |
| LAC | Q4 6:49 | 9 | 42 | End of half | 34–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 10/17 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
| Jeff Blake | 7/16 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 12 | 37 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Jeff Blake | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 6 | 12 | 88 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ki-Jana Carter | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.87
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.