Closing spread
LAC -17
Total
48.5
Model margin
+6.9est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.126
- 43.6%Success rate47.0%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.105EPA / rush+0.001
- 10.1%Explosive rate12.5%
- -3.54CPOE+3.54
- 36.9%Third-down rate39.7%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
- 1.95Points / drive2.31
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. LAC are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 18/27 | 170 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 26 | 111 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Alex Erickson | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Boyd | 3 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Cody Core | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| John Ross | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 19/29 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 15 | 66 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.2%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.91