2018 · Week 14

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jeff Driskel

21·26

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

LAC -17

Total

48.5

Model margin

+6.9est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapChargers
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.126
  • 43.6%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.105EPA / rush+0.001
  • 10.1%Explosive rate12.5%
  • -3.54CPOE+3.54
  • 36.9%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
  • 1.95Points / drive2.31
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 10–5 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. LAC are 8-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11CIN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2021 · W13LAC @ CIN41–22CHARGERS
2020 · W1LAC @ CIN16–13CHARGERS
2015 · W2SD @ CIN19–24CIN
2013 · playoffsSD @ CIN27–10CHARGERS
2013 · W13CIN @ SD17–10CIN
2012 · W13CIN @ SD20–13CIN
2010 · W16SD @ CIN20–34CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–LAC
LACQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 11:39851Field goal3–7
LACQ1 6:231385Touchdown3–14
CINQ2 14:51616Punt3–14
LACQ2 12:083-2Punt3–14
CINQ2 10:22950Field goal6–14
LACQ2 5:0130Punt6–14
CINQ2 3:373-11Punt6–14
LACQ2 2:013-1Punt6–14
CINQ2 1:35535Touchdown12–14
LACQ2 0:20322Field goal12–17
CINQ3 15:00414Turnover on downs12–17
LACQ3 12:441022Field goal12–20
CINQ3 7:38838Punt12–20
LACQ3 3:59619Punt12–20
CINQ3 1:00733Field goal15–20
LACQ4 12:12761Field goal15–23
CINQ4 7:451369Touchdown21–23
LACQ4 1:5037Field goal21–26
CINQ4 0:4930End of half21–26

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Driskel18/2717010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon261114.31
Alex Erickson11414.00
Jeff Driskel2126.00
Giovani Bernard372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Boyd36520
C.J. Uzomah33370
Cody Core34300
Joe Mixon56270
Giovani Bernard22130
John Ross24111

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers19/2922010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler15664.41
Justin Jackson7121.70
Philip Rivers273.50
Keenan Allen100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen58781
Mike Williams36450
Austin Ekeler25280
Justin Jackson22230
Antonio Gates22190
Tyrell Williams34140
Travis Benjamin11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +177.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.57%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

67.2%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.96
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.91