Closing spread
CIN -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play+0.063
- 47.4%Success rate44.6%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.094
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- -0.71CPOE+5.14
- 45.7%Third-down rate40.1%
- 68.6%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 2.55Points / drive2.38
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 26/35 | 317 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 5 | 7 | 110 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 4 | 4 | 90 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 8 | 34 | 2 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 24/40 | 300 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 9 | 14 | 138 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 7 | 85 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.47