2021 · Week 13

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

41·22

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBengals
  • +0.088EPA / play+0.063
  • 47.4%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.094
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -0.71CPOE+5.14
  • 45.7%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 68.6%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 2.55Points / drive2.38
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 10–5 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11CIN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2020 · W1LAC @ CIN16–13CHARGERS
2018 · W14CIN @ LAC21–26CHARGERS
2015 · W2SD @ CIN19–24CIN
2013 · playoffsSD @ CIN27–10CHARGERS
2013 · W13CIN @ SD17–10CIN
2012 · W13CIN @ SD20–13CIN
2010 · W16SD @ CIN20–34CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–CIN
LACQ1 15:00955Touchdown6–0
CINQ1 11:31513Turnover6–0
LACQ1 8:47414Field goal9–0
CINQ1 6:28525Turnover9–0
LACQ1 4:29573Touchdown16–0
CINQ1 1:3444Punt16–0
LACQ2 14:4233Punt16–0
CINQ2 13:393-5Punt16–0
LACQ2 11:37358Touchdown24–0
CINQ2 10:12685Touchdown24–6
LACQ2 7:39743Turnover24–6
CINQ2 4:09314Touchdown24–13
LACQ2 2:4069Turnover24–13
CINQ2 1:19634End of half24–13
CINQ3 15:001055Field goal24–16
LACQ3 9:53321Turnover24–16
CINQ3 9:00532Touchdown24–22
LACQ3 7:106-1Punt24–22
CINQ3 3:2447Punt24–22
LACQ3 1:413-3Punt24–22
CINQ3 0:38418Opp touchdown31–22
CINQ4 13:433-10Punt31–22
LACQ4 12:52453Touchdown38–22
CINQ4 10:49850Turnover38–22
LACQ4 8:00423Punt38–22
CINQ4 6:50619Turnover on downs38–22
LACQ4 4:59615Field goal41–22
CINQ4 1:10215End of half41–22

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert26/3531731

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler14594.21
Justin Jackson6152.50
Justin Herbert166.00
Jalen Guyton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams571100
Jalen Guyton44901
Austin Ekeler55450
Keenan Allen58342
Jared Cook34290
Justin Jackson2260
Donald Parham2430
Josh Palmer0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow24/4030012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon19542.81
Samaje Perine5367.20
Joe Burrow166.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins9141381
Tyler Boyd57850
Ja'Marr Chase58520
C.J. Uzomah36200
Samaje Perine2250
Joe Mixon0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

46.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.47