Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- QuestionableEddie RoyalWRToe· DNP
- QuestionableSean LissemoreDTShoulder· Limited
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableKendall ReyesDEAnkle· Full
Bengals
- DoubtfulTerence NewmanCBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJermaine GreshamTEHamstring· Full
- QuestionableKyle CookCFoot· Full
- QuestionableTyler EifertTENeck· Full
- QuestionableWallace GilberryDEConcussion· Full
- ProbableA.J. GreenWRKnee· Full
- ProbableAndre SmithTAnkle· Full
- ProbableAndrew WhitworthTAnkle· Full
- ProbableAnthony CollinsTAnkle· Full
- ProbableChris CrockerSKnee· Full
- ProbableDre KirkpatrickCBIllness· Full
- ProbableVincent ReyLBAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 11:44 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:44 | 12 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q1 0:48 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 13:37 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CIN | Q2 12:06 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 5:59 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q2 3:37 | 5 | 74 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:47 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| CIN | Q2 1:14 | 5 | 40 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 12:26 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| CIN | Q3 6:46 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q3 5:41 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| CIN | Q3 2:00 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 1:11 | 4 | 0 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| CIN | Q4 14:16 | 8 | 54 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 10:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–10 |
| CIN | Q4 8:06 | 11 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 4:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–10 |
| CIN | Q4 4:22 | 7 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q4 3:07 | 2 | 60 | Touchdown | 27–10 |
| CIN | Q4 2:17 | 10 | 50 | End of half | 27–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 29/51 | 334 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 8 | 12 | 130 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 7 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.