Closing spread
CIN -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 29/51 | 334 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 8 | 12 | 130 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 7 | 8 | 64 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Eifert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.97
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.