2020 · Week 1

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Tyrod Taylor

16·13

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBengals
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.041
  • 43.8%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.122
  • 7.9%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +0.07CPOE+0.03
  • 45.1%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 2.02Points / drive1.87
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 10–5 since 1999

CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11CIN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2021 · W13LAC @ CIN41–22CHARGERS
2018 · W14CIN @ LAC21–26CHARGERS
2015 · W2SD @ CIN19–24CIN
2013 · playoffsSD @ CIN27–10CHARGERS
2013 · W13CIN @ SD17–10CIN
2012 · W13CIN @ SD20–13CIN
2010 · W16SD @ CIN20–34CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–CIN
CINQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
LACQ1 13:40617Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:45616Punt0–0
LACQ1 8:1236Punt0–0
CINQ1 6:5330Punt0–0
LACQ1 5:3935Punt0–0
CINQ1 3:59539Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 2:24735Turnover on downs0–7
CINQ2 14:57614Punt0–7
LACQ2 11:181175Field goal3–7
CINQ2 7:1038Punt3–7
LACQ2 4:53834Turnover on downs3–7
CINQ2 1:1136Punt3–7
LACQ2 0:33561Field goal6–7
LACQ3 15:00643Missed field goal6–7
CINQ3 11:40629Field goal6–10
LACQ3 9:1232Punt6–10
CINQ3 7:401043Field goal6–13
LACQ3 1:321055Touchdown13–13
CINQ4 12:232-1Turnover13–13
LACQ4 12:14721Field goal16–13
CINQ4 8:56752Turnover16–13
LACQ4 5:1349Punt16–13
CINQ4 3:081384Missed field goal16–13
LACQ4 0:0200End of half16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyrod Taylor16/3020800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler19844.40
Joshua Kelley12605.01
Tyrod Taylor671.20
Justin Jackson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Henry58730
Mike Williams49690
Keenan Allen48370
Jalen Guyton11160
Virgil Green12100
Austin Ekeler1130

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow23/3619301

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon19693.60
Joe Burrow8465.81
Giovani Bernard177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green59510
C.J. Uzomah45450
Tyler Boyd45330
Giovani Bernard45210
Mike Thomas23170
John Ross25170
Drew Sample1170
Joe Mixon1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.31
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.14