Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.041
- 43.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.122
- 7.9%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.07CPOE+0.03
- 45.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 2.02Points / drive1.87
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 16/30 | 208 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 19 | 84 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 8 | 73 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/36 | 193 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 19 | 69 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 5 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 4 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| John Ross | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.31
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.14