Closing spread
LAC -1
Total
48
Model margin
+0.9est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play+0.044
- 48.0%Success rate42.3%
- +0.193EPA / dropback+0.127
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.079
- 7.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- +6.81CPOE+1.69
- 47.3%Third-down rate40.1%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 2.50Points / drive2.25
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. LAC are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 28/50 | 356 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 9 | 13 | 148 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 7 | 13 | 75 | 2 |
| Chase Brown | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jermaine Burton | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 17/36 | 297 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 65 | 13.0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Gus Edwards | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladd McConkey | 6 | 9 | 123 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 4 | 6 | 80 | 1 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 8 | 48 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Tucker Fisk | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.95