Closing spread
SD -1
Total
45
Model margin
+1.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. SD are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/38 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 25 | 118 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 9 | 13 | 85 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Whalen | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.