Closing spread
SD -1
Total
45
Model margin
+1.1est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Bengals
- OutMohamed SanuWRFoot· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableRichard QuinnTEHamstring· Full
- ProbableBenJarvus Green-EllisRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableTerence NewmanCBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableAndrew HawkinsWRKnee· Full
- ProbableCedric PeermanRBNeck· Full
- ProbablePat SimsDTThigh· Full
Chargers
- OutDarrell StuckeySHamstring· DNP
- OutDonald ButlerLBGroin· DNP
- OutEddie RoyalWRHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulDante RosarioTEHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableJarret JohnsonLBBack· DNP
- ProbableAntwan BarnesLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableEric WeddleSConcussion· Full
- ProbableJeromey ClaryTThigh· Full
- ProbableLarry EnglishLBCalf· Full
- ProbableMike ScifresPright Ankle· Full
- ProbableTyronne GreenGHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. SD are 8-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 17 | 81 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 7:39 | 12 | 79 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| CIN | Q2 14:57 | 2 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–10 |
| CIN | Q2 14:09 | 10 | 92 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 9:38 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 10–10 |
| CIN | Q2 5:50 | 9 | 50 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LAC | Q2 1:45 | 10 | 90 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q3 13:10 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 11:15 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q3 9:30 | 5 | 1 | Turnover | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 7:34 | 10 | 25 | Missed field goal | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q3 2:36 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q3 0:45 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q4 14:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–13 |
| LAC | Q4 12:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–13 |
| CIN | Q4 11:53 | 15 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| LAC | Q4 4:11 | 2 | -10 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| CIN | Q4 3:54 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| LAC | Q4 2:47 | 11 | 58 | Turnover | 20–13 |
| CIN | Q4 0:49 | 2 | -2 | End of half | 20–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 25/38 | 211 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 25 | 118 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Cedric Peerman | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 9 | 13 | 85 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 5 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Ryan Whalen | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.14
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.