Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/26 | 214 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 20 | 123 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Eifert | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.