Closing spread
CIN -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutJohnnie TroutmanGForearm· DNP
- OutTourek WilliamsLBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulD.J. FlukerTAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulJacoby JonesWRAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulJahleel AddaeSAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableKyle EmanuelLBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableBrandon FlowersCBKnee· Full
- ProbableCraig MagerCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableJeremiah AttaochuLBHamstring· Full
Bengals
- OutMarcus HardisonDTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableGeorge IlokaSAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJosh ShawCBGroin· Limited
- LimitedAndrew WhitworthTNot Injury Related
- LimitedLeon HallCBNot Injury Related
- ProbableDre KirkpatrickCBCalf· Full
- ProbableReggie NelsonSGroin· Full
Win probability
- Bengals
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 10–5 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 47.9 points. CIN are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–CIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 13:36 | 2 | 19 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 12:51 | 8 | 57 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q1 8:38 | 6 | 39 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:42 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| CIN | Q1 4:13 | 9 | 50 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 14:43 | 8 | 65 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| CIN | Q2 9:24 | 7 | 79 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q2 6:01 | 8 | 26 | Punt | 6–14 |
| CIN | Q2 1:49 | 4 | 21 | End of half | 6–14 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| CIN | Q3 10:34 | 5 | 23 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| LAC | Q3 7:44 | 3 | 7 | Missed field goal | 13–14 |
| CIN | Q3 5:58 | 10 | 55 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| LAC | Q3 2:44 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–17 |
| CIN | Q3 0:27 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 13–17 |
| LAC | Q4 12:36 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–17 |
| CIN | Q4 10:54 | 6 | 49 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| LAC | Q4 8:49 | 13 | 100 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| CIN | Q4 4:20 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 19–24 |
| LAC | Q4 1:09 | 2 | 11 | Turnover | 19–24 |
| CIN | Q4 0:53 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 16/26 | 214 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 20 | 123 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Eifert | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 5 | 48 | 1 |
| A.J. Green | 3 | 4 | 45 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.68
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.17
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.